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经济学家:涨息1% 房价就会下跌5.8%

 
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发表于 2013-7-4 07:03:43 | 只看该作者 回帖奖励 |倒序浏览 |阅读模式

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只要利率上涨1%,并维持一段时间,大多伦多地区的房屋销售量便可能大跌15.3%,房价也将跟著下跌5.8%,这是一位资深房地产经济分析师3日作出的预测。 据多伦多星报电子版报导,房地产经济学家邓宁(Will Dunning)分 ... [ 查看全文 ]

§ 发表于 2013-7-4
月经文来了。
沙发
发表于 2013-7-4 08:05:34 | 只看该作者
这次涨的是固定利率,那是有债卷市场决定的,还会降下来,不影响房市
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板凳
发表于 2013-7-4 08:53:26 | 只看该作者
回复 2# wenlangc


   关键是通涨,如果控制不了.加息在所难免.80年代15%以上的利息都出现过,现在的超低利息是经济不好带来的.也不是什么可以长久的好事.
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地板
发表于 2013-7-4 09:07:03 | 只看该作者
月经文来了。
racingtrack 发表于 2013-7-4 08:03



    +1
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5#
发表于 2013-7-4 09:13:09 | 只看该作者
唱跌派的傻B们又要傻眼了。  LOSER张,白痴西风,又要哭鼻子了。    哈哈哈


Toronto housing sales fall slightly in June; prices jump 4.7% year over year
TORONTO — The Canadian Press
Published Thursday, Jul. 04 2013, 7:32 AM EDT
Last updated Thursday, Jul. 04 2013, 8:13 AM EDT
2 comments
       

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Housing sales in the Greater Toronto Area were down by less than one per cent in June compared with the same month a year ago, while the average selling price was up by 4.7 per cent at $531,374, according to a report by Toronto Real Estate Board.

“In line with the 2013 norm,” June price growth was driven by single-detached and semi-detached houses, particularly in the city of Toronto, the board said in a report Thursday.

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Over the same time period, average condominium apartment selling prices remained in line with 2012 levels, it said.

Meanwhile, new listings were down more than sales, which the board says suggested that market conditions became tighter.

“The sales picture in the GTA improved markedly in the second quarter of 2013,” board president Dianne Usher said in remarks accompanying the report.

“While the number of transactions was still down compared to 2012, rates of decline were substantially improved compared to the first quarter.”

“As a growing number of homebuyers, many of whom put their purchase on hold due to stricter lending guidelines, now reactivate their search, the expectation is for renewed growth in home sales in the second half of 2013,” she added.

Jason Mercer, the board’s senior manager of market Analysis, said the relative short supply of low-rise home types in many parts of the GTA continued to “prompt strong upward pressure on selling prices of singles and semis.”

“We have also seen enough buyers in the better-supplied condo apartment market to provide support for selling prices at current levels,” Mercer added.

The reports breakdown by market segment showed that detached home sales in Toronto’s 416 area code were down 6.9 per cent at 1,137 in June, but the average price was up 8.1 per cent at $866,326.

That compared with a 3.2 per cent increase in sales to 3,411 in the 905 area, where year-over-year prices were up 4.9 per cent at $598,708.

The semi-detached market in the 416 area saw a 3.1 per cent decrease in sales to 380, but a 9.5 per cent increase in prices to $618,194, and a 0.8 per cent increase to 623 in the 905 area where prices were up 3.7 per cent at $411,877.

Condo apartment sales were down four per cent at 1,329 in the 416 area, while the average price was relatively stable, up just 0.3 per cent at $366,532.

At the same time, 905-area sales were down 2.3 per cent at 556, with the average year-over-year selling price up 0.9 per cent at $288,604.

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6#
发表于 2013-7-4 09:16:35 | 只看该作者
不管涨跌,最后都会有人成为大傻X。
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7#
发表于 2013-7-4 09:22:22 | 只看该作者
围观贴!:laugh:
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8#
发表于 2013-7-4 09:36:55 | 只看该作者
看来泡沫不小.
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9#
发表于 2013-7-4 10:48:40 | 只看该作者
唱跌派的傻B们又要傻眼了。  LOSER张,白痴西风,又要哭鼻子了。    哈哈哈


Toronto housing sales fall slightly in June; prices jump 4.7% year over year
TORONTO — The Canadian Press
Published Thursday, Jul. 04 2013, 7:32 AM EDT
Last updated Thursday, Jul. 04 2013, 8:13 AM EDT
2 comments
        REAL ESTATE Greater Vancouver housing market shows signs of revival
poker98 发表于 2013-7-4 10:13 http://bbs.51.ca/images/common/back.gif



TREB还在继续造假。去年说6月份卖了九千四百多,今年引用去年六月变成了九千一百多。

房价如果不是每年升4-5%,就是赔本。因为养房子要钱。剩下来的增值也就2-3%了,还不如换成人民币存在银行里定期存款。加元又跌了,你房子增值那点钱换成美元又赔了。

这两天查了查一些熟悉区域的房价。总的感觉是和去年基本没太大变化。所以去年忍住没买房的,到现在再卖仍算划算。

但我的建议是,继续hold。好戏在后面。不仅仅是房地产,整个加拿大会被做空的。

这年头大亨们圈钱靠做空。黄金一度很热。看看套进去多少华人。
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10#
发表于 2013-7-4 11:55:49 | 只看该作者
现在的状况,无论是谁,恐怕都难以有个有效的方法来降低房价。
任何一种方法,都会对经济造成巨大的影响!
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11#
发表于 2013-7-4 12:52:09 | 只看该作者
这次是真的,涨息已经开始了。
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12#
发表于 2013-7-4 12:58:18 | 只看该作者
不一定的,假如通胀上来,买房还是一个保值的手段。
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13#
发表于 2013-7-4 13:06:00 | 只看该作者

经济学家:涨息 将冲击加拿大房产市场

本帖最后由 加拿大老张 于 2013-7-4 14:07 编辑
回复  wenlangc


   关键是通涨,如果控制不了.加息在所难免.80年代15%以上的利息都出现过,现在的超低利息是经济不好带来的.也不是什么可以长久的好事.
Corning 发表于 2013-7-4 09:53


搞笑, 现在政府考虑的是不能进入下一轮衰退, 通涨根本不是首要目标. 经济没恢复, 加息是雪上加霜. 所以只要经济没恢复, 任何加息都是短命的, 量化宽松来稀释危机, 是长期政策.
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14#
发表于 2013-7-4 13:41:19 | 只看该作者
不管涨跌,最后都会有人成为大傻X。
加拿大华人之声 发表于 2013-7-4 10:16 http://bbs.51.ca/images/common/back.gif



    有道理。 不过涨的概率要远远大过跌。   全球经济危机都过去了,加拿大难道单独来一次危机?

不可能。
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15#
发表于 2013-7-4 13:42:53 | 只看该作者
TREB还在继续造假。去年说6月份卖了九千四百多,今年引用去年六月变成了九千一百多。

房价如果不是每年升4-5%,就是赔本。因为养房子要钱。剩下来的增值也就2-3%了,还不如换成人民币存在银行里定期存款。加元又跌了,你房子增值那点钱换成美元又赔了。

这两天查了查一些熟悉区域的房价。总的感觉是和去年基本没太大变化。所以去年忍住没买房的,到现在再卖仍算划算。

但我的建议是,继续hold。好戏在后面。不仅仅是房地产,整个加拿大会被做空的。

这年头大亨们圈钱靠做空。黄金一度很热。看看套进去多少华人。
inoo 发表于 2013-7-4 11:48 http://bbs.51.ca/images/common/back.gif


造假这词用过度了。  粉饰也许,rosy picture, maybe.  造假,加拿大人胆子还是不够大滴。
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