转帖：中国和美国换了把交椅。这个世界怎么啦？

好兴致

中国和美国换了把交椅。这个世界怎么啦？

作者：谐和。  
最近的中文媒体和网站时事栏目被这样一些内容占据着：

“香港占中。。。。。。。”
“台湾九合一。。。。。。”
“石油价格大跌。。。。。”
“美国佛格森。。。。。。”

可是，12月4日，2014年，一早进办公室，却被几位非华人同事拉去他们的电脑屏幕看到这样一个醒目新闻：

It’s official: America is now No. 2 and CHINA is #1!

开始我还不明白这#1，#2在讲什么，以为又是什么“中国威胁论”在惊吓着这些一贯自我优越感良好的白人同事，及至看了内容，才知道，12月4日这天，发生了美国历史上的一个划时代的惊天大事：自美国第18届总统格兰特1865年主事白宫以来，美国在当了世界经济一哥150年以后，第一次把头把交椅让给了中国。中国当了老大，美国改坐老二。

呵呵，我还以为是什么了不起的大事。世界大战爆发了？

我只是向各位笑了笑，竞自回去自己的办公室，打开电脑来看看。看着看着，眼中却情不自禁地，毫无先兆地，涌出几滴泪水！

之所以称之为“OFFICIAL",大概消息来源不是中国而是美国政府或者什么国际经济权威机构，具体数字是：到2014年12月4日为止，中国的生产总量是17。6兆美元，美国的是17。4兆。这是150年来，世界上第一次有一个国家的总量超过了美国。以前有经济学家预测这个数字的到来时间将会是2016或者2020年，看来是早了几年。

全世界的中文媒体（包括咱们可爱的“******”）对这一新闻都谦虚的保持低调，一向反华的媒体表示“没看见”。公知杂碎们更是一反常态，罕见地沉默。

可是在美国的媒体和网络上却炸开了锅：呢吗，这是怎么回事呢？太丢人啦！！

我的脑海里却浮现着这样一个场景，挥之不去：一场长跑。

裁判一声令下，一个瘦瘦的黄种人和一群白人黑人开始长跑。瘦瘦的黄种人开始落后于白种人梯队，落后一圈，落后两圈，落后三圈，四圈。。。。。。距离越拉越远。羞愧，耻辱混合着汗水，疲劳，挣扎，这个黄种人没有泄气，他咬着牙，在众多的嘘声和加油声中，“赶上去！赶上去！赶上去。。。。。。”

2014年12月4日这一天，他终于超越了一直瞧不起他的第一梯队的白人头领，冲过红线。

止不住的眼泪，就是这样流下来的。

再来美国人的网络看看，不乏大喊大叫。或自责自讽，或责备赖账，或咄咄逼人，或茫然失措。先摘抄几段下来，看看痛失一把交椅者怎么说的：


NC says:
December 4, 2014 at 7:54 pm
I find it funny how Chinese people have to pay $16 US dollars for a pound of beef and we still have to say, “There are starving people in China” when it is supposed to be the number 1 country in the world, but that’s Communism for ya. Now we are the number 2 country in the world and “There are starving people in America”. So how are we different from China?

The irony of it all is that a country that always wants to be number 2 is now number 1 and a country that always wants to be number 1 is now number 2.Adding to this that most of America's economic output consists of immaterial goods, while Chinese economic output is real hardware, there's a real need to worry about long-term sustainability of the US economy (fracking notwithstanding).

Enemy of the State says:
December 4, 2014 at 12:44 pm
you should see some of the manufacturing facilities and equipment over there

it would blow your mind,, and remind yo of our once prosperous country

as my company struggles over here in this government cesspool … I see whats going on over there it makes me very sad for this country and everyone here trying to make a go of it


If we would get rid of these professional welfare'ers ( Thread: Woman on Welfare for 12 Years Explains "I Don't Need a Job, I Already Get a Check" ), then we could use that money for great things...

But the thing is USA tries to please EVERYONE within its borders!

And however sweet and nice that is, it doesn't actually achieve anything.

The more you can achieve as a unit the better the country really... and I sense USA doesn't have the balls to really implement a vision.

I would say the USA did have a vision at one time, but right now the American dream has been shown to be a fraud. Kind of.

And since that you haven't got any goals.. its the same old .


Chris Snider18 minutes ago
And if you compare China to other countries over there, you know they can still go further... they've not yet started producing/exporting automobiles.
They've got an advantage over the US because they're actually producing something - a good portion of US GDP comes from Wall Street money games but really doesn't produce anything (nor does it circulate in the economy if it only gets reinvested).  To compensate for a loss of manufacturing jobs we've now got semi- and unskilled workers wanting to make a living wage by flipping hamburgers and doing other jobs that used to be entry-level and summer work for high school kids.
But as long as US equity markets keep cranking up, nothing else really matters....right?

originally posted by: TDawgRex
a reply to: coldkidc

So much for the prediction that China was to be the leading economy by 2020. I guess they arrived early.


Or we are falling faster than we have been led to believe.

Good thing is, China has absorbed much of our business and manufacturing, so life goes on... In China.
Philosophical Objection LYSSA ? 4 hours ago
Who cares? America is ranked 37 in World Education and still fluoridates and offers Monsanto chem lab mutated foods to its own people.

robert ? 4 hours ago
Ya, ok, China does produce more, goods, and services,, so what...
What we produce in America, is....... money.
We print it !
It's called ..... the shekel....
.
We back up the shekel with the power of the US Military.
.
And if the world will not take the shekel, in exchange for their goods, services, and submission, we cram the shekel down their throats, at the spear point of a predator drone, or a B1 bomber....

quote:
Originally posted by oddball:
quote:
For the first time since Ulysses S. Grant was president, America is not the leading economic power on the planet.


Seems China is more capitalist-friendly than the U.S. is nowadays Frown.



I would also assume they are not 18 trillion dollars in debt,so we are in worse shape than being passed as the number 1 economy.

Chris Snider18 minutes ago
And if you compare China to other countries over there, you know they can still go further... they've not yet started producing/exporting automobiles.
They've got an advantage over the US because they're actually producing something - a good portion of US GDP comes from Wall Street money games but really doesn't produce anything (nor does it circulate in the economy if it only gets reinvested).  To compensate for a loss of manufacturing jobs we've now got semi- and unskilled workers wanting to make a living wage by flipping hamburgers and doing other jobs that used to be entry-level and summer work for high school kids.
But as long as US equity markets keep cranking up, nothing else really matters....right?

originally posted by: TDawgRex
a reply to: coldkidc

So much for the prediction that China was to be the leading economy by 2020. I guess they arrived early.


Or we are falling faster than we have been led to believe.

Good thing is, China has absorbed much of our business and manufacturing, so life goes on... In China.
Philosophical Objection LYSSA ? 4 hours ago
Who cares? America is ranked 37 in World Education and still fluoridates and offers Monsanto chem lab mutated foods to its own people.

robert ? 4 hours ago
Ya, ok, China does produce more, goods, and services,, so what...
What we produce in America, is....... money.
We print it !
It's called ..... the shekel....
.
We back up the shekel with the power of the US Military.
.
And if the world will not take the shekel, in exchange for their goods, services, and submission, we cram the shekel down their throats, at the spear point of a predator drone, or a B1 bomber....

quote:
Originally posted by oddball:
quote:
For the first time since Ulysses S. Grant was president, America is not the leading economic power on the planet.


Seems China is more capitalist-friendly than the U.S. is nowadays Frown.



I would also assume they are not 18 trillion dollars in debt,so we are in worse shape than being passed as the number 1 economy.

Chris Snider18 minutes ago
And if you compare China to other countries over there, you know they can still go further... they've not yet started producing/exporting automobiles.
They've got an advantage over the US because they're actually producing something - a good portion of US GDP comes from Wall Street money games but really doesn't produce anything (nor does it circulate in the economy if it only gets reinvested).  To compensate for a loss of manufacturing jobs we've now got semi- and unskilled workers wanting to make a living wage by flipping hamburgers and doing other jobs that used to be entry-level and summer work for high school kids.
But as long as US equity markets keep cranking up, nothing else really matters....right?

originally posted by: TDawgRex
a reply to: coldkidc

So much for the prediction that China was to be the leading economy by 2020. I guess they arrived early.


Or we are falling faster than we have been led to believe.

Good thing is, China has absorbed much of our business and manufacturing, so life goes on... In China.
Philosophical Objection LYSSA ? 4 hours ago
Who cares? America is ranked 37 in World Education and still fluoridates and offers Monsanto chem lab mutated foods to its own people.

robert ? 4 hours ago
Ya, ok, China does produce more, goods, and services,, so what...
What we produce in America, is....... money.
We print it !
It's called ..... the shekel....
.
We back up the shekel with the power of the US Military.
.
And if the world will not take the shekel, in exchange for their goods, services, and submission, we cram the shekel down their throats, at the spear point of a predator drone, or a B1 bomber....

quote:
Originally posted by oddball:
quote:
For the first time since Ulysses S. Grant was president, America is not the leading economic power on the planet.


Seems China is more capitalist-friendly than the U.S. is nowadays Frown.

I would also assume they are not 18 trillion dollars in debt,so we are in worse shape than being passed as the number 1 economy.

加拿大老张

6年前中国还是老三, 老四吧? 这都是奥巴马的功劳, 专门鼓动黑人游行示威, 抗议司法判决, 顺便再搞点打砸抢烧赔点GDP, 哪有时间和精力发展美国经济?

纸纱窗

回复 1# 三达

你还到处重复发？
我告诉你这是怎么了：】


    http://bbs.51.ca/thread-605659-1-1.html

克 飞

不会吧， 美国不是才修改了以前通行的GDP算法, 可以让中国超过美国的时间向后延迟7年吗？

好兴致

6年前中国还是老三, 老四吧? 这都是奥巴马的功劳, 专门鼓动黑人游行示威, 抗议司法判决, 顺便再搞点打砸抢烧赔点GDP, 哪有时间和精力发展美国经济?
加拿大老张 发表于 2014-12-8 12:33

    三亲，有一句话你大概听说过：中国永远是输家

好兴致

回复
纸纱窗 发表于 2014-12-8 13:08

    不可以吗？

纸纱窗

可以是可以，但是呢，笑惨了大家：


“三达只是向各位笑了笑，竞自回去自己的办公室.... 眼中却......情不自禁地，（并且）毫无先兆地，涌出几滴泪水.....:eek:



2014年12月4日这一天，三达终于超越了一直瞧不起他的第一梯队的白人头领，冲过红线....止不住的眼泪，奏是这样流下来滴.... :laugh:

纸纱窗

回复 6# 三达


    这种鬼话只有你信，ok？

  你这等脑子的人，等回流中国后，又会信”加拿大是第一强国”，

同样又后悔“我怎么回流早了，不如不回流...”..啊哈哈，全乱了！

无忧了

不可以吗？
三达 发表于 2014-12-9 10:44

窗纱姐捂着耳朵尖叫着：我不听，我不听。。。

David度假屋

大家没必要这么激动。


这是10月8号，中国PPP-GDP（购买力平价GDP）超过美国的时刻，美国一家在线新闻平台的报道。这家媒体以新闻速度快报道方式新颖著称，但也有人批评其标题哗众取宠，中文俗称“标题党”。


China Just Overtook The US As The World's Largest Economy  Mike Bird, Business Insider, OCT. 8, 2014, 5:08 AM


Sorry, America. China just overtook the US to become the world's largest economy, according to the International Monetary Fund.
Chris Giles at the Financial Times flagged up the change. He also alerted us in April that it was all about to happen.

Basically, the method used by the IMF adjusts for purchasing power parity, explained here.

The simple logic is that prices aren't the same in each country: A shirt will cost you less in Shanghai than in San Francisco, so it's not entirely reasonable to compare countries without taking this into account. Though a typical person in China earns a lot less than the typical person in the US, simply converting a Chinese salary into dollars underestimates how much purchasing power that individual, and therefore that country, might have. The Economist's Big Mac Index is a great example of these disparities.

So the IMF measures both GDP in market-exchange terms and in terms of purchasing power. On the purchasing-power basis, China is overtaking the US right about now and becoming the world's biggest economy.

We've just gone past that crossover on the chart below, according to the IMF. By the end of 2014, China will make up 16.48% of the world's purchasing-power adjusted GDP (or $17.632 trillion), and the US will make up just 16.28% (or $17.416 trillion):
[img][/img]



Adjusted for purchasing power, China's economy is now the world's largest.

It's not all sour news for the US. It'll be some time yet until the lines cross over in raw terms, not adjusted for purchasing power. By that measure, China still sits more than $6.5 trillion lower than the US and isn't likely to overtake for quite some time:






But in terms of the raw market value of China's currency, it still has a long way to go.

- 此帖来自无忧论坛手机版

David度假屋

这个是中国新闻网所转中国财政部的回应。


          财政部表态“中国GDP超美国”：质量上差距大


　　中国财政部副部长朱光耀8日在华盛顿智库彼得森国际经济研究所举办的一场论坛上说，在经济增长质量上中国与美国还有很大差距。他强调，中国仍是发展中国家，还需要继续推进改革开放来提高经济增长质量，让老百姓过上更好生活。

　　朱光耀是针对国际货币基金组织(IMF)日前公布的比较数据作上述表态的。IMF的统计显示，以购买力平价(PPP)计算，美国2014年国内生产总值(GDP)为17.4万亿美元，而中国则达到了17.6万亿美元，成为全球最大经济体。不过按实际汇率计算，美国2014年GDP为17.4万亿美元，而中国则为10.4万亿美元，中美之间的差距依然较大。


　　除IMF外，世界银行也进行了类似统计。世行首席经济学家兼高级副行长考希克·巴苏在接受记者采访时说，根据世行统计，以购买力平价计算，中国经济规模将在2014年10月10日超过美国。不过巴苏强调，将市场汇率因素计算在内，美国仍然是世界上最大经济体，中国要超过美国还需要很长一段时间。


　　一般情况下，一国GDP按照国内价格水平以本币计算，因此比较不同国家的GDP需要经过汇率换算。然而，各国实际汇率水平不一定都达到均衡水平而且变化无常，因此通过实际汇率换算进行比较可能错误估计不同国家的购买力和生活水平。


　　而以购买力平价汇率进行换算，则可以准确反映出两国货币的购买力差异。例如，一个汉堡在中国卖16元人民币，同一个汉堡在美国卖4美元，那么中国和美国的购买力平价汇率就是4比1。而人民币和美元的市场汇率价格则是大约6比1，因此，按照购买力平价汇率计算的中国经济规模会明显高于按市场汇率价格计算的结果。


　　从全球范围来看，采用购买力平价汇率对GDP进行比较的结果和使用市场汇率进行比较的结果常常有很大差距。使用购买力平价汇率计算一般会增加发展中国家的经济规模，因为商品和服务价格在这些国家往往较低。


　　因此，采用购买力平价方式来比较两国实际生活水平差距有一定合理性，但用来比较两国经济的实际规模则具有误导性。美国企业研究所经济学家德里克·西瑟斯认为，在任何时点、任何国家之间用购买力平价来比较GDP总量并没有太大意义。（新华社）

- 此帖来自无忧论坛手机版

克 飞

回复 11# David度假屋

按照以前通行的GDP算法, 中国已经超越美国, 但美国最近修改了GDP的算法, 这样中国还需要大约七年才能超过美国. 中国无所谓，低调点, 攻击会少些， 反而很满意。

美国与英国修改GDP还有一个最大的问题是国债与GDP的比例可以看起来小一些， 以避免降级.。。美国国债其实已经被降级了.

英国比较有意义， 新把卖淫与贩毒算进去了, 大概占GDP的10%。英国的GDP一下上去了.。。。但是坏事接着来, 德国认为英国的GDP发展很好, 所以应该在欧盟多承担29多亿的义务， 欧盟大家都支持。。结果把英国首相气得吐血, 但也没撤, 而事实上欧盟是德国的发展是最好的。