新税对压房价效果有多大？业内称最多平静6个月

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很多人拿温哥华的政策做类比说事，我也好奇温哥华房价到底怎样了。这是最新的报道，可以接着点进去看Royal LePage 的 latest House Price Survey.
http://www.cknw.com/2017/04/18/price-reset-underway-in-metro-vancouver-housing-market/
It has found that while overall home values fell by 1.9% in the first quarter of this year, the first time that’s happened in 4 years, it appears there is pent-up demand in the spring market.
也就是说在新政过去8个月时间里，房价还是在下降通道里。虽然年同比还是有12.3%的上涨，但季度环比还是下降，毕竟2016上半年涨的太多，就像Toronto一样。不知道这个作者吴JJ是否断章取义，显然这个皇家地产的销售代表的看法和自己公司的report相悖。
A price reset is underway in British Columbia’s Lower Mainland, where eroding affordability coupled with recent public policy intervention abruptly slowed activity. The number of homes trading hands has fallen steeply, and home values have begun to adjust downward as demand falls.
“Vancouver house prices are up compared to the first quarter of 2016, yet this doesn’t tell the complete story,” continued Soper. “For weeks now, we have witnessed a steady fall in real estate values in the Lower Mainland, with sales activity down some 40 per cent compared to recent norms.”

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加拿大老张 发表于 2017-4-21 13:38
安省政府这样违背市场常识的做法， 阻止有钱人入市， 扶持没钱人买房， 是在强化加拿大本地人次贷的规模 ...

不觉得这政策就是“阻止有钱人入市， 扶持没钱人买房”，只是希望房价稳一稳，否则让房价飞到天上，投机丛生就好了？富人的财富最终是从中产和穷人那收刮或转移过来，如果一下就到头，很快就没人接得了盘了，那富人又收刮谁去，他们才不傻。

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不忽悠大众入场，早买的赚谁的钱去。非得把不动产炒成跟股票一样，人人疯狂，造假骗贷，勒紧裤腰带，家徒四壁也要挤上车，最后却来个过山车，被人杀鸡取卵，后来者就是这样被洗劫的。背上沉重债务也要帮助别人挣钱，高位入场者有的是多么伟大的精神。

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如果这一波没压下去，也没有后续政策跟进。等过个一年半载美国进入加息快车道，加拿大被迫加息，很可能做出一个双顶，房市就真正开始掉头向下了。