ZT 美国网民热议：为什么中国不会攻打台湾

满 江 红

译文简介: [外交家]为什么中国不会攻打台湾译文来源

正文翻译: 原创翻译：龙腾网 翻译：猫记 转载请注明出处

[ 转自铁血社区 http://bbs.tiexue.net/ ]

为何中国不会攻击台湾

It is extremely unlikely that China will invade Taiwan , much less succeed.

中国不太可能入侵台湾，更不用说获得胜利了。

虽然近年来关系相对温和，但台湾是中美关系中潜在的最大的导火索。事实上，美国国防分析人士认为，中国不断扩大的反介入/区域封锁(A2/AD)功能主要通过阻止美国干预北京入侵台湾来实现的。因此，美国军方行成的对于对抗A2/AD的主要概念——即海空作战和阻断拦截——似乎存在于中国与台湾之间会爆发战争的基础上。

在很多方面，对于台湾的关注都是精心布局的。中国对于台湾的觊觎，远远超过了对于其他地方的渴望，这其中也包括钓鱼岛/尖阁列岛。对于中共领导人及千千万万的中国普通老百姓来说，台湾是遗留至今的中国所遭受的世纪耻辱的证据之一。收回台湾同样也能显著提升中国人民解放军对外作战能力。尽管近年来两岸关系有所改善，但中国仍然拒绝放弃入侵台湾的可能性。 Besides having the

除了收回台湾的动机之外，中国武力夺岛的能力似乎正在快速增长。近几年，两岸军事杠杆迅速倾向于北京一方，并且，只要中国的经济继续增长，这一趋势肯定会继续下去。今天，中国有着至少1600枚弹道导弹瞄准着台湾，台湾国防部承认，到2020年，中国将有足够的能力发动海峡战争。

[ 转自铁血社区 http://bbs.tiexue.net/ ]

这一切使得一些美国的分析家们，特别是现实主义的学者们倾向于说服美国逐步向中华人民共和国放弃台湾。例如，2011年CharlesGlaser在一篇具有争议的外交事务文章中说道，考虑到中美之间发生核战争的风险，“美国应该考虑放弃对台湾的承诺。此举将能消除中美之间最明显且最易于引发冲突的因素，并能为两国在将来几十年中的友好关系铺平道路。”

同样的，JohnMearsheimer在最近一次在台湾的谈话中认为，由于缺乏独立的核威慑力量，台湾的最佳策略就是向北京要求“香港策略”。在香港策略下，“台湾要接受它最终将丧失独立性且变成中国的一部分的事实。然后努力确保过渡过程的平和，如此它才能从北京手里获得更可能多的自主权。” Although the trend lines are undoubtedlyworking in China’s favor, itis ultimately extremely unlikely that Chinawill try to seize Taiwanby force. Furthermore, should it try to do this, it is unlikely to succeed.

尽管趋势无疑是对中国有利，但中国最终微乎其微试图通过武力夺取台湾。此外，如果它试图这么做，它也不可能获得成功。 Even

即使假设中国的军事能力大得足以阻止美国对此进行干预，可能会存在两股力量足以阻止中国入侵台湾。首先，也是最无足轻重的就是，此举在该地区和世界各地眼中，将产生怎样引人注目的影响。从全球范围来说，中国武力夺取台湾的举动必将导致她永久地背上邪恶国家的名号。区域范围里，中国入侵台湾的举动，一定会将有关中国将如何运用其日益增加的军事能力的争议一扫而清。该区域内的每个国家，在台湾身上都能看到自己未来的命运。尽管北京会试图以台湾是中国固有领土，此举只为安抚国内稳定，这一理由来说服这些国家，但这一说辞是不会让她任何一个邻国信服的。因此，中国必将面临一个所有邻国彼此抱团以抗衡中国力量的局面。 But the more important deterrent for Chinawould be the uncertainty of success. To be sure, China’smilitary capabilities are growing to the point where it will soon be assured ofits ability to quicklydefeat Taiwan’smilitary forces.

但更重要的是，中国无法确保胜利。可以肯定的是，中国军力的不断增长很快能确保她能击败台湾军队。 A little longer down the road it will alsolikely be confident that it can prevent the U.S. from intervening in theconflict.

不久的未来，中国似乎同样将有足够的自信阻止美国对这场冲突的干预。

[ 转自铁血社区 http://bbs.tiexue.net/ ]

然而，最近美国的军事冲突充分证明了一点，能打败一个国家跟能安抚一个国家是两码事。在后者的目标中，中国的策略可能会动摇。台湾坚决反对被纳入一个非民主的中国。这些感觉，在被入侵后，只会变得愈发强烈。

因此，即便她能迅速击败台湾的正规军事力量，中国人民解放军也将未来几年持续面对残余抵抗力量。这样一种局面会让北京的领导人们坐立不安，因为这种反抗可能在内地的不同群体中激发类似的反对行为，最先爆发的可能就是西部的少数民族。如果解放军在台湾实行严厉的镇压行动，甚至可能造成内地汉族的不安。事实上，这种与日本帝国主义对台策略的相似之处，会让中国人心尽失。 The entire situation would be a nightmarefor Chinese leaders. Consequently, they are nearly certain to avoid provokingit by invading Taiwan.The only real scenario in which they would invade Taiwan is if the island nationformally declared independence. But if Taiwanese leadershave avoided doing soto date, they are unlikely to think the idea is very wise as China goes stronger.

整个形势对中国领导人来说，会是一场噩梦。因此，他们会尽量避免因为入侵台湾而引发的愤怒情绪。他们入侵台湾的唯一前提，就是台湾岛先宣布独立。但台湾领导人会避免这样做，他们也不认为此举将是明智的，因为中国正变得越来越强大。

因此，海峡两岸的现状不太可能因为军事力量的变化而发生改变。相反，北京更愿意从经济的角度来吸引台湾，并试图破坏美国台湾的双边关系。希望台湾领导人最终会得出他们无法抗拒被纳入中国的结论，中国本身可以通过提供有利的条件促进这一切的发生。

评论翻译:

论坛地址：

[ 转自铁血社区 http://bbs.tiexue.net/ ]

akira December 30, 2013 at 11:21 The best strategy for China is to actively encourage and endorse Taiwan’sstatehood. The result will be a pro-china state with credible power, a loyalmilitary ally and a staunch supporter of China for years to come. Itactually is the beststrategy to maximize, and multiply, China’s interests and power at nocost.

对于中国而言，最好的办法就是积极鼓励和认可台湾的国际地位。此举将给中国带来一个支持中国的国家，一个忠诚的军事盟友，未来几年的坚定支持者。这实际上是深化中国利益的一本万利的好办法。 akira December 30, 2013 at 11:44 I should add that, as outrageous as it mayappear to be, the most unthinkable strategy can be the best strategy, and themost unthinkable outcome needs not always be a pessimistic one. Fear can beovercome, even children do it all the time.

我要补充一点，最不可思议的方法可能是最好的方法，同样，最不可思议的结果也并非总是悲剧的。恐惧是可以被克服的，即便孩子也能做到。 Calvin December 29, 2013 at 17:28 As the author did not use framework todiscuss this topic, Chinese and Taiwanese is more of a constructivist frameworkrather than realist. The author considered military power as animportant consideration, and at times he also uses the consideration of balanceof power against Chinaas a deterring factor. I would beg to differ on the points above,as viewed under a constructivist framework, the concept of One China andhistorically independence, has become very important concept. How important is “One China Policy” ? Thesedays, we have started to see Chinausing their new maritime advantages to announce ECS ID zone over a small Diaoyu Island.For a country like China,one should not underestimate her desire for the taking over of Taiwan. However, the Taiwanese has a radicallydifferent thinking as themainland, just like other Overseas Chinese populations.Unfortunately, the mainlanders are emptying the islandof Taiwan and for survival, manyelites in Taiwanhas already switched side, and is not now on the permanent slide towardsunification.

作者并未使用结构框架来讨论这个问题，中台之间更多的是个构成主义，而非现实主义。作者将军事力量作为一个重要的因素来考虑，有时他将力量的平衡作为阻碍中国的一个因素来考虑。我不同意以上观点，在构成主义框架下，一个中国以及历史上独立的概念，已经变得非常重要了。“一中政策”有多重要？这些天，我们已经开始看到中国运用其新的海军优势，在钓鱼岛上空划定防空识别圈。对于一个像中国这样的国家，谁都不能低估她对控制台湾的渴望。然而，台湾人就像其他海外华人一样，与内地有着截然不同的思维模式。不幸的是，内地人为了生存正在清空台湾岛，台湾的精英们已经开始转变，且并非永久地滑向统一。 Daimler Altschuh December 27, 2013 at 19:39 PRC is highly unlikely to invade Taiwan unless Taiwanallows the USto set up a military base there, but the Taiwanese are smart enough not toallow that to happen. Taiwanand PRC are more intertwined than ever before economically and in blood ties.

中共中国极其不可能入侵台湾，除非台湾允许美国在台湾建立军事基地，但是台湾人足够明智，不会允许这样的事情发生。台湾和中国不管是在经济领域还是在民族血缘关系上，彼此之间的关系都较之以前更为错综复杂。 Aboigim December 30, 2013 at 23:03 Should the USestablish millitary installations in Taiwanit’ll increase the deterrence on China. The fear of nuclear war iseverybody’s fear even the Chinese. In the worst case scenario it will just endin a conventional warfare where Chinawill be humiliated.

美国如果在台建立军事基地，这将大大增加对中国的威慑。人人都惧怕核战争，中国也不例外。最坏的情况，就是利用常规战争痛扁中国。

满 江 红

tteng December 27, 2013 at 03:38 Last night we went to a dinner party, amongthe guests were several Qinghua graduates (in their late 40′s to early50′s) who came of age during the tailend of CR, came to the states for their engineeringgraduate degrees, stayed and work here in the SiliconeValley, and spent considerable timetraveling between the states/China/(and Taiwan for business). Since my wifeand I were the only ones from Taiwan;I asked them, 1. when is China ready for one-person-one-votedemocracy? The general impression I got from their responses: about 20-30years. The reason: the average Chinese is not ‘ready’ for democracy (i.e. theself realized altruistic responsibilities to make it work). Though thehardwares (i.e. infrasturctures) are there, the software (i.e. the quality ofthe people) has not caught up. 2. What then, in between now and in 30years? Their responses: elitetocracy (sic), or ‘democracy’ among the elites,much like CCP of today. Everyone of these Qinghua gradutates were invited andvetted by CCP to join. Not everyone joined, but CCP only asked and accepted thebest. 3. What’s their impression about Taiwanesewhen visited there? Their responses: polite, helpful, and not out to takeadvantage of the visitors. My take away: Taiwan(and Taiwanese) is a prototype-China showcasing what a democratic and civilChinese society can be like. That Chinese-in-Taiwan has been there, done that;therefore, so can Chinese-on-mainland.
[ 转自铁血社区 http://bbs.tiexue.net/ ]
昨晚我们去参加一个晚宴，来宾当中有好几个中国清华毕业生（大概四十多或五十岁出头），他们都是在CR末期来到这里，攻读工程硕士学位，然后留硅谷工作生活。因为生意，常游走在中国/美国（以及台湾）。只有我跟我妻子是来自于台湾；我问他们： 1、中国打算什么时候开始一人一票的民主制度？我收到的回复给我的总体印象是：大约20到30年以后。原因就是：大部分的中国老百姓还没有做好“准备”迎接民主的到来（例如 自我意识中要有利他的责任感）。虽然硬件（基础设施）已经没问题，但是软件（例如人口素质）还没跟上硬件的发展。 2、那么，从现在到30年以后是什么样子呢？他们的回答是：精英政治或“精英民主”，就像今天的中国GCD。在场的每个清华生都收到了入党邀请和审查。并非每个人都参加了，但是中国GCD只邀请和接受了最优秀的人。 3、当他们访问台湾是，对台湾的印象是什么？他们的回答是：礼貌，热心，但并不利用游客。我的想法是：台湾（以及台湾人）是民主中国的写照。台湾人已经做到了；因此，内地人也可以做到。 Tteng December 29, 2013 at 15:11 Regarding CCP personal membership, I don’tknow. But one of them worksfor Huawei, which has heavy presence in both theValley (eating Cisco’s lunch) and SanDiego (eating Qualcomm’s) by out paying itsaforementioned competitors. Well..it is basicallylike CCP-electronics(otherwise known as Huawei) throws down a gauntlet at the heart of the USelectronics/network industries, on US soil, and one tries to guess how much ofits US workforce are non-Chinese and non-CCP. That horse (CCP check) left the barn (ICEwatch) long ago already.
说道中共的党员关系，我不太清楚。但是华为里面有一些党员，华为通过收购竞争对手，在硅谷（思科）和旧金山（高通）可不容小觑。好吧。。。它基本上算是中共电子公司（也称为华为），在美国本土，向美国电子/互联网行业的要害部位打了一记猛拳，而我们还在试图猜测有多少美国劳力非中国人，非中共党员。中共这匹马早已脱离美国移民和海关局的缰绳老久了，好咩。 Nawiat December 26, 2013 at 08:38 Whoever use English and think in Englishcan’t understand 華人思維及文化。 it’s totally different and complicatethan you think. So don’t bother yourself and forget about how American can earn largest gain!Mind your own business and controlyour gun for not shooting your own children.
那些个说英语的人是不会明白“華人思維及文化”的。这与你想的完全不同，也更为复杂。所以不要自寻烦恼了，忘记美国如何才能获得最大收获吧！管好你自己的事吧，管好你的抢，别朝你自己的孩子射击就好。 Tom F December 27, 2013 at 07:52 Considering there’s not even a directMandarin translation for the English word ‘United’, I think that says it allabout the nature of China…. It should have been a ‘United’ Kingdom for all Chinese people, not CentreKindom …. centre of what? China’sneighbours. Considering Chinasupplied guns to the worst genocidal regime of all time, Pol Pot, I think youbetter keep your advice, while you’re at it, please also stop supplyingoutrageously cruel terrorists in the Philippines as well.
考虑针对英语单词“统一”，没有直接的汉语翻译，我认为那说的都是中国的特性。。。它对于所有的中国人来说，应该是一个“联合”王国，而不是中央王国。。。什么的中心？中国的邻国们。考虑到中国总是为世界上最没有人性的政权提供武器，比如波尔布特，我认为你最好闭嘴，别提出什么建议，而你，也请停止向菲律宾的残忍的恐怖分子肆无忌惮地提供支援的行为。 klu December 26, 2013 at 04:15 US will sell F-35 and Osprey to every allyexcept Taiwan.What does it mean? There is no future for Taiwanas it already given that Chinacan and will reclaimed it.
美国向除了台湾以外的每个盟友销售F35和鱼鹰。这意味着什么？这意味着台湾已经没有什么未来可言了，因为台湾预期将被中国收回。 Don Bacon December 26, 2013 at 01:42 How could “Chinaacquire Taiwan” when Taiwan is a part of China? In fact, Taipeisees itself as thecapital of China,calling itself to Republic of China.
台湾是中国的一部分，那么又怎么能说“中国收回台湾”呢？事实上，台北认为自己才是中国的首都，它称自己为中华民国。 Emelio Lizardo December 26, 2013 at 01:27 Zack, is English your second language? Beyond the cold war attitudes, theTaiwanese feel no kinship with Chinawhich has a wholly separate culture and history, the same with Tibet. Moreover, China would be considerablyimproved and enriched without these territories.
[ 转自铁血社区 http://bbs.tiexue.net/ ]
Zack，英语不是你的母语吧？超出冷战的态度，台湾人觉得自己跟中国没有什么亲缘关系，认为彼此有着完全不同的文化和历史，就跟XZ一样。此外，没有这些领土，中国自身将得到极大的改善和提升。 9 dashes, 4 dishes, 1 soup December 25, 2013 at 18:54 Unlike South Korea, the US bears some moral responsibilityfor the predicament of the Taiwanese. It should allow forpeaceful resettlementof Taiwanese in the United States — green cards. The British set a good example with Hong Kong. America should pay heed. Both South Korea and Taiwanare inside the blast zone when war comes. The US owes some consideration to theTaiwanese people.
不像韩国，在台湾问题上，美国肩负着一些道德责任。它应该允许台湾人移民美国—获取绿卡。英国人在香港问题上带了个好榜样，美国人应该注意到这点。当战争来临，韩国和台湾都会处于风暴地带，美国对台湾人民欠缺了一些考虑。 Derek December 25, 2013 at 17:02 What really matters is that China increasingly has the ability to invade Taiwan. But theimportant thing to note is that even the perceived ability for China to performsuch an action is a watershed moment for the current global order. The fear of the inability to maintain thestatus quo is one that has been brewing for a long time.
真正关键的是，中国军力不断增长，拿下台湾变得越来越不是个问题。但值得注意的一件重要的事情是，即便中国具有执行这个行动的感知力，这也将成为世界新秩序的分水岭。 Me December 24, 2013 at 23:57 If Chinainvaded Taiwan today, Japanand South Koreawould be nuclear armedby tomorrow.
如果台湾今天遭到中国的入侵，那么，韩国和日本明天就等着被核弹瞄准吧。 Michael Turton December 24, 2013 at 21:09 I’ve responded to this here.http://michaelturton.blogspot.co ... -yes-of-course.html Why do we see that same dopey picture of MaYing-jeou on so many Taiwanarticles? Feel free to pillage my flickr account for Taiwan pictures, no need to pay,just credit me.http://www.flickr.com/photos/michaelturton/?details=1
我已经在这里发表了我的回复。 http://michaelturton.blogspot.co ... -yes-of-course.html 为什么在很多有关台湾的文章里面，我们都看了马英九的痴呆照？我网络相册里面的台湾照片，大家随意下载吧，不要钱的，相信我。http://www.flickr.com/photos/michaelturton/?details=1
swoosh December 24, 2013 at 19:35 Comparing Chinese invasion on Taiwan with USinvasion on Afghanistan and Iraq is likecomparing apple and orange. The Chinese inMainland and The Taiwanese share thesame culture, languages and even surnames. TheAmericans and the Afghans andIraqis share nothing. Sure there will be opposition if, and that is a big IF, China invade and conquer Taiwan, but it will be much easier for China to pacify them, unlike the USeffort to pacify the Afghans or Iraqis.
[ 转自铁血社区 http://bbs.tiexue.net/ ]
拿中国入侵台湾与美国入侵阿富汗和伊拉克作比较，就像是拿一个苹果与橘子做比较一样。内地的中国人与台湾人同宗同源，有着相同的语言及文化。而美国人与阿富汗人和伊拉克人完全是两码事。中国如果攻打台湾，这里有且必然有反抗，但是中国安抚台湾，比起美国安抚阿富汗或伊拉克而言，那将容易得多。 greg December 25, 2013 at 08:49 Do they share the same heart?
他们还共享心脏么？ Lei December 24, 2013 at 15:56 One other point is that if China could effectively invade Taiwan, that might actually achieve the oppositeof what the author is suggesting and result in MORE countries bandwagoning to China.If China could occupy Taiwan and successfully deter the US, orkeep it from even entering the conflict, that wouldsignal a massive collapsein the credibility of USpower. Many countries would simply assume it is safer to be on China’s goodside than bad side, especially if the relationship is alreadypretty good ortolerable. It would also have the effect of militarizing Japan, which wouldn’t necessarily be seenpositively by every country in the region and may further drive some countriestoward’s China’s sphere ofinfluence, even as other country’s shift towards what may become Japan’sgrowing sphere of influence. The simple assumption that every country wouldcollaborate against China isa naive one borne out of an ignorance of how contentious the relationships ofEast Asian countries can be not including China.
另一个问题是，如果中国能有效地入侵台湾，就像作者暗示的那样，这实际上可能取得相反的效果，导致更多国家抱团制衡中国。但如果中国能占领台湾，且击退美国，或者说，根本将美国置之门外，那这就意味着美国力量的崩溃。很多国家就会认为，与中国保持一致更加有利于自身安全，特别是在本身与中国的关系已经很不错或者可以忍受的情况下。这对日本军事化一样有影响，当然对于本区域的每个国家来说，这种影响并非都是积极的。但可能使得中国深化对一些国家的影响，甚至可能使得一些国家并入日本的势力范围。简单认为各国将抱团制衡中国的人真是太天真了，这证明其对于不包括中国的具有争议性的东亚各国之间的关系是有多么的无知。