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欧债危机威胁加国 央行警告大幅加息
本帖最后由 林林' 于 2012-12-13 20:16 编辑
回复 林林'
但在高债务低利息下,泡沫破已经发生过了,美国西班牙等国家,就是在历史最低的利息下,房地产蹦盘了,现在加拿大人的债务实在是太高了,而且蹦到什么程度谁都无法预料和控制.央行能做的就是在加拿大的泡沫自己破之前提前行动,尽量把泡沫破裂的危害减少.
zeak 发表于 2012-12-12 06:06
美国西班牙等国家,就是在历史最低的利息下,房地产蹦盘了?
你太想当然了.
In fact, these two countries lower their mortgages rates to record lows after the financial crisis.
http://ycharts.com/indicators/30_year_mortgage_rate
http://www.globalpropertyguide.com/Europe/Spain/Price-History
The cause of 美国房地产蹦盘 was the subprime mortgages, people had taken loans/mortgages with little money down. The interest rate was much higher during the period of 2006 to 2008, it was about 6% for a 30 years mortage.
In Canada, we have a more conservative lending system. If you do not believe, consult your banker to check out what is your minimum requirement for down payment.
Whether the housing market will crash or not depends on many factors such as:
Domestic factors:
Unemployment rates.
Lending policies include: debt-to-equity ratio, interest rate, and income requirement.
Commodities prices - inflation rates.
Supply and demand of the housing market include: rent to own ratio.
Government involvement include: immigration policy, tax levy, monitory policy, and mortgage policy.
International economic factors:
Return on investments - poor financial performance of other countries make Canada becomes the attractive one.
Foreign exchange rates.
Commodities prices - inflation rates.
I agree that if the lending policy is being too aggressive in Canada, it will increase the chance of financial crash. As the current situation, it seems to me the housing market is getting stable for residential properties.
Comment: 对牛弹琴. |
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