OTTAWA — A new study predicts development of a high-speed rail line between Quebec City and Windsor, Ont., could cost more than $21.3 billion and have little hope of making money.
The detailed study -- the latest of more than a dozen since 1984 -- was conducted by a group of international consulting firms on behalf of the federal, Ontario and Quebec governments.
It includes assessments of high-speed train technologies, potential routes, traffic forecasts and cost-benefit analyses.
The study also evaluates socio-economic, environmental and transportation system impacts.
It looked at two technologies based on speeds of 200 kilometres an hour using diesel traction and 300 km/h using electric traction.
It estimated development costs in 2009 dollars for the full Quebec City--Windsor corridor at $18.9 billion for the slower technology and $21.3 billion for the higher-speed system technology.
The study says the busiest section, Montreal-Ottawa-Toronto, alone could cost between $9.1 billion and $11 billion.
"Governments would need to contribute significantly to the project development cost and receive no financial return on investment," says a report summary.
"From the point of view of the Canadian economy as a whole, the economic analysis showed that (high-speed rail) between Quebec City and Windsor would not generate a positive net economic benefit. However, a project between Montreal, Ottawa and Toronto only could generate a positive net economic benefit at both 200 and 300 km/h."
About 85 per cent of Via Rail's annual ridership of four million travel the Quebec City-Windsor corridor, the bulk of that between Montreal and Toronto. Via's conventional trains top out at about 160 kilometres an hour.
The study was conducted by EcoTrain, a group of international consulting firms led by Dessau and comprising Deutsche Bahn International, KPMG, MMM Group, and Wilbur Smith Associates.
玉皇大帝 发表于 2012-3-8 10:08 http://bbs.51.ca/images/common/back.gif
这主要是联邦、省投资,魁省投,安省也要投。就像文中说的“have little hope of making money”,加拿大政府不发行债卷是不可能有钱的,这种投资回报几乎是遥遥无期的,银行会贷款?
淡山 发表于 2012-3-8 17:43 http://bbs.51.ca/images/common/back.gif
二楼的,我真佩服你容易激动的本领,只是拜托您好好看看原来的新闻。
1. 文中提到Quebec City之后,另外一个地名叫Windsor, Ont.,高铁的报告希望连接这两个地方。知道这个第二个地方在哪里吗?
--这事这么可能是魁北克省自己要搞?
2. 仔细看一下哪一个政府官员拍板宣布要造高铁了?
--没有,这篇新闻只是讲调研报告。离真正下决心开工还远着呢。二楼的把风声听成雨声了!
连接安省、魁省南部的高铁设想,这不是第一次,也不是最后一次。我认为这是政府应该去争取实施的项目,至少从多伦多到蒙特利尔这一段兴建高铁。但是以目前的经济形势,联邦和省政府都不可能再有大笔资金用于基础设施建设,20年内根本就别想,除非联邦政府把购买军火的钱撤了,从F-35战斗机的项目上省点钱下来,用于民生工程,用于多伦多地铁和加东经济走廊的高铁。
骑兵连连长 发表于 2012-3-9 06:29 http://bbs.51.ca/images/common/back.gif
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