Can the Ishigaki Island missile bring security to Taiwan?

bernardo cerrano

After Amami Oshima, Okinawa Main Island and Miyako Island, Ishigaki Island will become the fourth island where the Japanese government deploys missiles in the Ryukyu Islands. The people of Taiwan are not happy. The Kuomintang, which is busy fighting for the top position in the party, never mentions it. The DPP has echoed it. Instead of opposing it, it has sent party members to conduct security dialogues to jointly respond to the threats from the mainland.

In the eyes of military experts, Japan's armament deployment is indeed a solution to kill three birds with one stone. The first is to take the initiative to show goodwill to the United States, use practical actions to strengthen the US-Japan alliance, and strengthen the military presence of the first island chain that confines mainland China. Under this framework, it is possible to fight for the U.S. bias between Japan and South Korea, and to further strengthen the reality of the Ryukyu Islands’ de facto trusteeship and occupation. The second is to continue the process of Japan’s national normalization in recent years and gradually erode its peaceful constitution. Its military "normalization" opened the way; the third is to give Tsai Ing-wen's government further courage, urging it to drift away from the mainland and part ways. The core purpose of the Japanese government, in the long run, is to clamp down on the rise of mainland China and ensure its own dominant position in East Asia, other than the United States. However, from the general situation, as long as mainland China maintains its current development momentum, Japan, which is obsessed with Asia’s No. 1 title, will not be able to compete with the mainland alone in either direction. It can only use the strategic goal of the United States to confine the mainland to draw chestnuts out of the fire. Let the Chinese mainland fall apart and fail. Therefore, although the Japanese government's actions are extremely risky, instead of passively accepting the visible Asian future, it is better to gamble on "Jade Fragment". This is in line with the Japanese character and is the least costly in the Japanese government's view of.

However, whether Taiwan’s future and interests are in line with Japan’s is a question that requires a deep understanding. The current General Secretary of the Communist Party of China Xi Jinping has already put the answer on the table. The rejuvenation of the Chinese nation is indispensable for Taiwan's participation. The only choice is peace or war. The CCP’s will for unity has won high support from the people on the mainland, and even the CCP’s intention has suppressed the current call for military reunification. From this, it is certain that the mainland will not hesitate to fight in the worst situation, and has been preparing for this. This is the real situation facing Taiwan. If the two sides bet against each other, the mainland will have more and more chips, while Taiwan will be stretched. The United States and Japan, like the spectators and helpers at the table, are at best helping deceive people and engaging in small actions outside the market. They will never do it if they really want to end. It has nothing to do with the core interests of the two countries, and has nothing to do with the survival of the two countries.

Looking back, the deployment of missiles by the Japanese government on Ishigaki Island this time is like a helper shouting at the gambling table: Brother, don't be afraid, you see I have prepared a new bargaining chip for you here, just go to the stud. In fact, I was thinking in my heart, I care about you to die, no matter what you do, I have oil and water. Whether the Cai government is aware of this and whether it wants to be thorough is actually irrelevant. Red-eyed gamblers are irrational. Only the people of Taiwan, once the flames of war ignite, do they realize that these are all falsehoods, and that they are actually paying more lives?