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This article also appears in The Interpreter, the journal of the Lowy Institutein Australia. Many people find it hard to understand why China is acting the way it is in the East and South China Seas. What does Beijing hope to achieve by alienating its neighbors and undermining regional stability? Let me suggest an answer: China is trying to build what President Xi Jinping calls "a new model of great power relations." To understand how this might be the aim of Beijing's actions, we have to recognize that under his "new model," Xi wants China to wield much more power and influence in Asia than it has for the past few centuries. These things are inherently zero-sum, so for China to have more power and influence, America must have less. This is what Xi and his colleagues are trying to achieve. 这篇文章也刊登在澳洲罗伊国际政策研究院的杂志《翻译家》上。 许多人觉得中国在东海和南海的行为难以理解。北京想通过孤立其邻国和破坏地区稳定来获得什么呢？ [ 转自铁血社区 http://bbs.tiexue.net/ ]
让我来猜猜这个答案：中国想构建Xi所说的“大国关系的新模式‘。为了了解这怎么可能成为北京行动的目的，我们需要来认识，在这个”新模式“下， Xi想要中国在亚洲行使更多的权力和施加更多的影响，这是中国在过去几个世纪没有做到的。这些事本质上是一种零和游戏，中国有了更多的权利和影响力，美国的权利和影响力就会更少。这就是Xi和他的同事们尝试追求的。 Their reasoning is simple enough. They know that America's position in Asia is built on its network of alliances and partnerships with many of China's neighbors. They believe that weakening these relationships is the easiest way to weaken U.S. regional power. And they know that, beneath the flowerydiplomatic phrases, the bedrock of these alliances and partnerships is theconfidence America's Asian friends have that America is able and willing toprotect them from China's power. 他们的逻辑很简单。他们知道美国在亚洲的地位是基于它与许多中国的邻国所建立的联盟和伙伴网络的。他们相信削弱这些关系是削弱美国地区力量的最好方式。他们也知道，在华丽的外交措辞下，这些同盟和伙伴关系的基石是美国的亚洲伙伴们对美国有能力且愿意保护他们的信任。 So the easiest way for Beijing to weaken Washington's power in Asia is to undermine this confidence. And the easiest way to do that is for Beijing topress those friends and allies hard on issues in which America's own interests are not immediately engaged -- like a string of maritime disputes in which the U.S. has no direct stake. 所以，对北京来说，削弱华盛顿在亚洲力量的最简单的办法是削弱这种信任。而做到这一点最简单的方法是在美国自己的利益无法迅速涉及到的事务上严厉地对那些盟友施压。比如，一系列与美国没有直接利害关系的海事纠纷。 [ 转自铁血社区 http://bbs.tiexue.net/ ]
By using direct armed pressure in these disputes, China makes its neighbors more eager for U.S. military support, and at the same time makes America less willing to give it, because of the clear risk of a direct U.S.-China clash. In other words, by confronting America's friends with force, China confronts America with the choice between deserting its friends and fighting China. Beijing is betting that, faced with this choice, America will back off and leave its allies and friends unsupported. This will weaken America's alliances and partnerships, undermine U.S. power in Asia, and enhance China's power. 通过在这些争端中使用直接的军事压力，中国使他的邻国对美国的支持更加渴望，同时也因为中美冲突的明显风险而使美国更不愿意提供支持。换句话来讲，通过用武力对抗美国的盟友，中国使美国面对抛弃盟友还是面对中国的选择困境。北京打赌美国在面对这些选择时肯定会抛弃他的盟友而不提供支持。这会削弱美国的同盟和伙伴关系，从而弱化美国在亚洲的力量，加强中国的力量。 This view of China's motives explains its recent conduct. Ever since President Obama announced the "pivot," China has tested U.S. willingness to support its allies over the Scarborough Shoals andSenkaku/Daioyu disputes. Until his Asian trip last month, Obama seemed inclined to step back from America's commitments, but his bold words in Tokyo and Manila suggest he has recovered his resolve to stand firm. 对中国动机的观点解释了它最近的行动。 自从奥巴马总统宣布了"重返亚太战略"，中国就在斯卡伯勒浅滩（黄岩岛）和钓鱼岛测试了美国对支持其盟友的意愿。在奥巴马上月的亚洲行之前，他偏向于放下美国的承诺，但他在东京和马尼拉的讲话表明他恢复了站稳立场的决心。 [ 转自铁血社区 http://bbs.tiexue.net/ ]
Now we can expect China to test this newly-recovered resolve by applying more pressure in the same places or elsewhere. And that is what Beijing is doing today in the waters off Vietnam. It is calling Obama's bluff. Expect more pressure against Manila and Tokyo soon. Of course this carries risks for China. It does not want to fight America, so it must be confident in the judgment that America will back down and desertits friends rather than engage in conflict with China, even if backing down badly weakens the U.S. position in Asia. This confidence reflects two key judgments by China's leaders. 现在，我们可以期望中国通过在同样的地方或别的地方施加压力来考验这个新恢复的决心。这就是北京最近在越南附近水域所做的事。 当然，这对中国有风险。中国不想与美国作斗争，所以，中国必须对自己的判断很有信心：美国必定会让步，抛弃他的盟友而不是与中国作斗争，即使让步会弱化美国在亚洲的地位。这份信心表明了中国领导阶层的两个关键判断。 First, they believe that China's new anti-access/area denial capabilities can deny America a quick and easy victory in an maritime clash in the East Asian littoral waters. They have been reassured by America's own Air-Sea Battledoctrine that the U.S. knows it cannot prevail in these waters without launching a major campaign of strikes against Chinese territory. Such strikes would obviously risk a major escalation which might not stop below the nuclear threshold. So China's leaders think their U.S. counterparts understand that a war with China today is one that America could not be confident of either winning or limiting. 首先，他们相信中国新的反介入/反封锁能力能使美国无法在东亚海域的海事冲突中取得简单快速的胜利。他们已经因美国自己的空-海战斗原则而消除了疑虑，美国自己知道如果不对中国领土开展打击行为就不能在这些海域取胜。而这种打击行为显然有升级为核战的风险。所以中国的领导阶层认为美国的领导阶层也知道现在与中国开战的话，美国是不可能有信心赢的。 [ 转自铁血社区 http://bbs.tiexue.net/ ]
Second, Beijing believes the balance of resolve is on China's side.Washington clearly wants to preserve its role in Asia, but Beijing is even more determined to win power at the U.S.' expense. China's conduct suggests that the leadership in Beijing believes Washington understands this imbalance of resolve. That makes the Chinese confident that U.S. leaders will not assume that China would back down first in a crisis. 第二，北京相信中国有更大的决心。华盛顿肯定想保存在亚洲的地位，但北京更有决心夺过美国的权利。中国的行为表明：中国的领导们认为华盛顿理解双方决心的不平衡。这使中国确信美国人不会假设中国在危机中首先退步。 The idea that China might believe these things comes as a surprise to many outside China, including, one suspects, many in Washington. U.S. policytowards China, including the pivot itself, is based on contrary assumptions. The consensus is that Beijing is not really serious about challenging U.S. leadershipin Asia because it is simply not willing to risk a confrontation with America which Beijing's leaders must know they would lose, and they do not care enough about expanding China's role in Asia to take that risk. 中国可能相信这些事的想法对中国以外的许多人来说可能很令人惊讶。有人怀疑包括很多华盛顿的对华政策，也包括”重返亚太“战略，这些政策都是基于相反的猜测的。大多数人认为北京不是真的想挑战美国在亚洲的领导地位，因为中国肯定不想冒与美国对峙的风险，北京的领导们肯定知道在这种对峙中，中国必败。他们也不想冒这种风险来扩大中国在亚洲的地位。 If that's true, then China's conduct is clearly foolish. But before assuming that the Chinese leaders are fools, we would be wise to wonder whether they really do believe what Washington assumes they believe. I'm pretty sure they do not. Asia today therefore carries the seeds of a truly catastrophic episode of mutual misperception. Both Washington and China are steadily upping the stakes in their rivalry as China's provocations of US friends and allies become more flagrant and America's commitments to support them become more categorical. [ 转自铁血社区 http://bbs.tiexue.net/ ]
Both believe they can do this with impunity because both believe the other will back down to avoid a clash. There is a disconcertingly high chance that they are both wrong. Someone needs to change the nature of the game to avert the risk of disaster. 如果这是真的，那么中国的行为肯定是傻子行为。但是在假设中国领导人都是傻子之前，考虑一下中国人是否真的相信华盛顿假设他们相信的东西是很明智的。我十分确定他们不相信。 现在的亚洲为因相互误解导致的灾难性事件埋下了种子，随着中国对美国盟友的挑衅越来越公开化，美国对其盟友的支持力度也越来越大，中美两国都在增加自己的筹码。 他们都相信能够不受伤害地的做这些事，因为他们都相信对方会为了避免冲突而退步。很有可能他们两个都错了。 需要有人来改变游戏性质从而避免灾难的风险。 | 
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发表于 2014-6-5 09:40:16
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