美联社：卢布大跌，八成俄罗斯人仍支持普京
从西方的角度看，普京当俄罗斯总统的日子应该屈指可数了：卢布贬值一半以上，俄罗斯经济正处于危机之中，普京侵略乌克兰使俄罗斯成为了国际社会的弃儿。但在大多数俄罗斯人看来，普京不是造成这一系列危机原因，反而是拯救俄罗斯的希望。http://i.guancha.cn/news/2014/12/18/20141218173536958.jpg卢布大跌的危机并未影响俄罗斯人对普京的支持。从俄罗斯人的视角出发，看到的情状与西方描绘的画面截然不同。俄罗斯人之所以这么想，在很大程度上是因为俄罗斯国家电视台对现实进行精心粉饰，以及克里姆林宫井然有序地解构了每一种可信的政治备选方案。此刻，普京正在为接下来的一场万众瞩目的电视新闻发布会做准备。美联社和美国国家民意研究中心于周四公布了一项民意调查发现，约有80%俄罗斯人仍然支持普京。但此项调查也显示，民众对经济的信心正在下降。特别是莫斯科民众已经对进口商品和境外旅游习以为常，如今因为卢布暴跌和西方制裁的关系，切身利益受到限制。所以信心不足在俄罗斯首都显得尤为突出该项调查是在11月22日至12月7日间进行的，当时卢布正处于稳步下降中。但本周卢布出现灾难性崩溃，可能对物价和生活水平的冲击更加沉重。普京要面对的问题是，他能否说服俄罗斯人接下来勒紧裤腰带——不仅是未来几个月，可能将持续数年。独立分析师玛丽亚·利普曼说：“俄罗斯人感觉自己受到了制裁，他们仿佛是一个被围攻的堡垒。俄罗斯电视台始终在稳定地传播一种心态：除了普京，还能依靠谁？普京被视作俄罗斯民族的救星，我认为他本人也是这样看待自己的。”在周四的新闻发布会上，普京将花三四个小时对国人的关注点一一作答。几乎可以肯定，他将向公众传递这样的信息：一切顺利、成竹在胸。在新闻发布会的广告上，普京通过国家电视台向俄罗斯民众展示出这样的形象：他时而被索契奥运会的运动健儿们簇拥着；时而抚摸虎宝宝；时而向宇航员致以问候。他向观众承诺道：“我们绝对有能力靠自己做成所有事”。该民调显示，俄罗斯人如何看待普京，与他们如何获取新闻资讯有关。以国家电视台作为新闻主要来源的受调查者支持普京的比例（84%），比那些通过其他来源获取消息的人更高（73％）；而更频繁收看新闻节目的人，对普京更加看好。石油是俄罗斯经济的支柱，在2000年普京当选为俄罗斯总统后，处于高位的石油价格使普京获益不少。在过去十年中，俄罗斯人的生活水平提高之快，超过了该国现代历史上任何一个时期。许多普通俄国人有生以来第一次有钱买车和环球旅游。普京对政治反对派和独立媒体的压制，虽饱受外界观察家批评，但在国内被许多人默然接受。因为在经历了上世纪90年代的大起大落后，俄罗斯大众认为值得为经济稳定做出妥协。“我非常支持普京——除了他还能支持谁？”一名受访者瓦伦蒂娜·罗舒金娜如是说。这名79岁的老人是莫斯科以南的格里亚茨镇上的居民。“我相信这个国家正在朝着正确的方向前进，因为他重振了军队，使政府更加强大。别人开始有点害怕我们了。”当被问及是否愿意接受美联社记者采访时，包括罗舒金娜在内的许多受调查者表示同意。随着俄罗斯经济受到西方制裁和油价下跌的冲击，普京更加依赖于其敢向西方叫板的强硬领导人形象。他似乎孤注一掷，期待硬汉形象将帮助他渡过经济难关。到目前为止，他赌对了：根据调查显示，总统和军队是俄罗斯最受信赖的机构——俄罗斯人对总统的信任率达四分之三；表示对军队有信心的达三分之二。50岁的伊万·萨万科是南部城市斯塔夫罗波尔的一名司机，他参与了此次民调，并说：“我们的军队已重振雄风，这至关重要。对我们来说，军队是第一位的，其他东西都排在后面。我们的国家是一个强国，这对我们来说非常重要。如果我们不是强国，那就不会存在。”受访者中，81％的人对普京处理工作的方式表示强烈赞同或部分赞同，比2012年美联社与德国捷孚凯消费调研公司联合进行的调查数据高出20多个百分点。虽然在普京统治下，俄罗斯变得更加专制，但民众对他的支持似乎是真实的。近年来，普京的支持率出现显著波动，这也显示出俄罗斯人认为自己能够在匿名调查中自由表达对总统的看法。从统计学上看，此次调查得出81％的支持率，只比俄罗斯最受尊敬的独立民调机构列瓦达中心在同一时间段测量数据74％略高一点。然而，许多分析者对高支持率提出质疑，认为克里姆林宫控制了信息，调查结果不见得有意义。“宣传活动是全方位的、有效的、垄断性的。如果存在信息垄断，谈支持率有什么意义？”质疑者格奥尔基·萨塔罗夫曾担任克里姆林宫顾问，现为某研究机构领导，主要关注腐败问题。“你必须关注的事实不是有80％的人支持他，而是尽管存在信息垄断，仍有15％的人不支持他，” 萨塔罗夫说。今年三月，在普京抓住机会从乌克兰攫取讲俄语的克里米亚半岛后，他的支持率一路飙升。利普曼说：“绝大多数俄罗斯人自豪感的来源是第二次世界大战的胜利，但那已经是70年前的事了，（在克里米亚）普京让今天的俄罗斯人尝到了胜利凯旋的滋味，让我们有种重振国威的感觉。”在乌克兰东部，俄罗斯支持的分离主义者武装起来反抗乌政府军队。他们也被俄罗斯国家电视台描绘成英雄。69％的俄罗斯受访者表示，乌克兰的许多或部分地方本就理当属于俄罗斯。但有些人，比如37岁的图书管理员叶琳娜·舍维柳娃，则表示，虽然自己支持普京，但俄罗斯蹚乌克兰这道浑水付出的代价恐怕太高了。在提到克里米亚时，舍维柳娃说：“我认为，我们的生活为了它失去了很多东西。”来自彼尔姆边疆区北部的舍维柳娃认为，“我们确实应该收回所有这些（俄语地区），但我们也需要国内一切都好……你不可能一下子什么好处都占尽了。”在俄罗斯各大城市，人们能越来越明显地感受到经济恶化和制裁带来的冲击。在莫斯科，超过六成的受访者表示，制裁已给他们带来了负面影响，大多数人认为他们的家庭的财务状况比三年前更差。在其他地方，只有不到一半的人有这种感觉。来自莫斯科的音效师、48岁的德米特里·乌留平说：“我担心俄罗斯会失去方向。工资看来是不会涨了。事实上，恐怕它还会跌，失业率将上升，这都会影响经济没有保障的人，也会危及我们这些靠创意产业吃饭的人”。2012年，普京开始了他的第三个任期，当时莫斯科曾出现一波抗议浪潮，其背后推动者正是这些创意产业人员。普京对反对派的打压更沉重了，他专注于经营自己的核心选民：除莫斯科外的地方选民，以及那些靠国家维持生计的人们。利普曼指出，在支持普京的大多数人眼里，心怀不满的莫斯科人矫情得毫无道理：“看看这些可怜的莫斯科人……天哪，他们抱怨来抱怨去，不就是为了自己不能去意大利度假，买不起帕尔玛干酪了嘛！”对于经济或普京领导的种种不满是否会进一步酝酿发酵，利普曼说，这得看“这次冲击伤害得有多严重，将持续多长时间。”此项关于俄罗斯民意的联合调查是由芝加哥大学国家民意研究中心主要负责的，实地考察和访谈调查是由捷孚凯俄罗斯分公司负责进行的，时间范围为11月22日至12月7日。该调查结论是基于2008个具有全国代表性的随机样本得出的，样本均为年满18岁的俄罗斯人。调查经费来自芝加哥大学国家民意研究中心。所有调查结果存在正负2.4个百分点的抽样误差。（原文系美联社报道，观察者网杨晗轶译，翻一页看英文原文。） By Laura Mills and Lynn Berry, Associated PressMOSCOW (AP) -- From a Western perspective, Vladimir Putin's days as president of Russia should be numbered: The ruble has lost more than half its value, the economy is in crisis and his aggression in Ukraine has turned the country into an international pariah.And yet most Russians see Putin not as the cause, but as the solution.The situation as seen from a Russian point of view is starkly different from that painted in the West, and it is driven largely by state television's carefully constructed version of reality and the Kremlin's methodical dismantling of every credible political alternative.As Putin prepares to face his public in a much-anticipated televised news conference, an Associated Press-NORC Center for Public Affairs Research poll released Thursday found that about 80 percent of Russians still support him.But it also showed that confidence in the economy is slipping. This is particularly true in Moscow, where people have become accustomed to imported goods and foreign travel, now once again off-limits for many because of the fall of the ruble and Western sanctions over Ukraine.The poll was conducted between Nov. 22 and Dec. 7, when the ruble was steadily declining. But this week's catastrophic collapse is likely to have a much greater effect on consumer prices and the standard of living.For Putin, the question is whether he will be able to convince Russians to tighten their belts, and not just for a few months but possibly for years to come."The Russian people have a sense that they are under sanctions, they are a fortress under siege," said Maria Lipman, an independent analyst. "This kind of mentality is disseminated consistently and steadily by Russian television: Who else is there to rely on except Putin? Putin is seen as the savior of the nation, and I think he sees himself in this fashion."Putin will address his countrymen's concerns over the course of three or four hours at Thursday's news conference. He seems all but certain to send the message that he is in charge and all is fine.An advertisement for the news conference running on state television shows Putin surrounded by Sochi Olympic athletes, petting a baby tiger and greeting cosmonauts. "We are absolutely capable of doing everything ourselves," he promises the audience.How Russians view Putin is associated with how they get their news, the poll showed. Those who identified state television as their main source of news are more likely to approve of Putin (84 percent) than those who have other sources (73 percent), while those who tune into the news often also have a more favorable opinion of him.After becoming president in 2000, Putin benefited from high prices for oil, the mainstay of Russia's economy. In the past decade, Russians saw their living standards rise faster than at any other point in modern history, transforming many average citizens into car owners and globe-trotters for the first time ever.The suppression of opposition politicians and independent media, widely criticized by outside observers, was tacitly accepted by many as a compromise worth making for economic stability after the roller coaster years of the 1990s."I very much support Putin — who else is there to support?" said Valentina Roshupkina, a 79-year-old resident of Gryaz, a town several hours' drive south of Moscow. "The country is moving in the right direction, I believe, because he lifted up the army, he made the government stronger. People started to be a little bit afraid of us."Poll respondents were asked whether they would be willing to speak with an AP reporter, and Roshupkina was among the many who agreed.With the Russian economy buffeted by Western sanctions and the fall in oil prices, Putin has relied even more on his image as a tough leader capable of standing up to the West. He appears to be betting that this will help him weather the economic storm.So far he's been right: The presidency and the military are the country's most trusted institutions, according to the poll, with three out of four Russians saying they trust the presidency and two out of three expressing faith in the military."We've revived the army and that's very important," said Ivan Savenko, a 50-year-old driver in the southern city of Stavropol who also took part in the poll. "For us, the most important thing is the army and then everything else. It's important for us that our country is a power. If we are not a power, we do not exist."Of those surveyed, 81 percent said they strongly or somewhat approve of the way Putin is handling his job, a dramatic increase of more than 20 percentage points from an AP-GfK poll conducted in 2012.While Russia has become more authoritarian under Putin, the support for him appears genuine. The significant fluctuation in Putin's ratings in recent years also indicates that Russians feel able to respond freely in anonymous surveys about their views on the president. The 81 percent approval rating is only slightly higher statistically than the 74 percent measured during the same time period by the Levada Center, Russia's most respected independent pollster.Many analysts question, however, whether the high ratings have any significance, given the Kremlin's control over information."There is a total, effective, monopolistic propaganda campaign, and if there is an information monopoly, how can you talk about ratings?" said Georgy Satarov, a former Kremlin adviser who heads a research institute that studies corruption."The thing you have to pay attention to is not the fact that 80 percent support him, but that despite that information monopoly 15 percent don't support him," he said.Support for Putin soared after he moved to seize the Russian-speaking Crimean Peninsula from Ukraine in March."A source of pride for the overwhelming majority of Russians is the victory of World War II, but that was already 70 years ago," Lipman said. "(In Crimea) Putin gave the sense that we are victorious and triumphant and resurgent today."The Russia-backed separatists who took up arms against government troops in eastern Ukraine also have been portrayed as heroes on state television. Of the Russians polled, 69 percent said that many or some parts of Ukraine rightfully belong to Russia.But some, like 37-year-old librarian Yelena Shevilyova, said that although she approves of Putin, she believes Russia's involvement in Ukraine may have come at too high a cost."I think we lost a lot in our lives because of this," said Shevilyova, another poll participant, referring to Crimea."I think that it is right to bring all of these (Russian-speaking regions) back, but we need everything to be good here too. ... You can't have everything at once," she said, speaking from the far northern region of Perm.Growing worries about a worsening economy and the impact of sanctions are more keenly felt in major cities. In Moscow, more than 6 in 10 said they had been negatively affected by the sanctions and most said their family's finances were worse than three years ago. Less than half felt that way elsewhere."I am afraid that Russia isn't going anywhere," said Dmitry Uryupin, 48, a sound director in a small production firm in Moscow who was among those surveyed. "It's unlikely that wages will be raised. In fact, it's quite likely the opposite will happen, unemployment will rise and it will all affect the most economically insecure people as well as us, the creative class."After Putin was inaugurated for a third term in 2012 after a wave of protests in Moscow driven by the creative class, he clamped down even harder on the opposition and focused on his core electorate: people in the provinces and those more dependent on the state for their income.The disgruntled in Moscow have proved easy to discredit in the eyes of what is known as the Putin majority: "Look at these poor Muscovites. ... Oh my God, they complain because they cannot go to Italy on vacation and they can no longer afford to buy Parmesan cheese!" Lipman said.Whether discontent not just with the economy but with Putin's leadership will grow, Lipman said, depends on "how badly this will hurt, and for how long."The AP-NORC Center poll of Russia was conducted by NORC at the University of Chicago with fieldwork for the in-person survey by GfK Russia from Nov. 22-Dec. 7. It is based on 2,008 in-person interviews with a nationally representative random sample of Russians age 18 and older.Funding for the survey came from NORC at the University of Chicago.Results for all adults have a margin of sampling error of plus or minus 2.4 percentage points. 卢布象是赶底走势。。这一波后, 卢布再不会有新低出现了. 原有的持续数年的下跌动能被充分释放， 卢布应该已经逆转， 所谓的凤凰涅盘. 除非生活有巨大变化，不然不会有问题。
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