美媒：为什么中美正在走向灾难性的冲突
This article also appears in The Interpreter, the journal of the Lowy Institutein Australia.Many people find it hard to understand why China is acting the way it is in the East and South China Seas. What does Beijing hope to achieve by alienating its neighbors and undermining regional stability?Let me suggest an answer: China is trying to build what President Xi Jinping calls "a new model of great power relations." To understand how this might be the aim of Beijing's actions, we have to recognize that under his "new model," Xi wants China to wield much more power and influence in Asia than it has for the past few centuries. These things are inherently zero-sum, so for China to have more power and influence, America must have less. This is what Xi and his colleagues are trying to achieve.这篇文章也刊登在澳洲罗伊国际政策研究院的杂志《翻译家》上。许多人觉得中国在东海和南海的行为难以理解。北京想通过孤立其邻国和破坏地区稳定来获得什么呢？[ 转自铁血社区 http://bbs.tiexue.net/ ]让我来猜猜这个答案：中国想构建Xi所说的“大国关系的新模式‘。为了了解这怎么可能成为北京行动的目的，我们需要来认识，在这个”新模式“下，Xi想要中国在亚洲行使更多的权力和施加更多的影响，这是中国在过去几个世纪没有做到的。这些事本质上是一种零和游戏，中国有了更多的权利和影响力，美国的权利和影响力就会更少。这就是Xi和他的同事们尝试追求的。Their reasoning is simple enough. They know that America's position in Asia is built on its network of alliances and partnerships with many of China's neighbors. They believe that weakening these relationships is the easiest way to weaken U.S. regional power. And they know that, beneath the flowerydiplomatic phrases, the bedrock of these alliances and partnerships is theconfidence America's Asian friends have that America is able and willing toprotect them from China's power.他们的逻辑很简单。他们知道美国在亚洲的地位是基于它与许多中国的邻国所建立的联盟和伙伴网络的。他们相信削弱这些关系是削弱美国地区力量的最好方式。他们也知道，在华丽的外交措辞下，这些同盟和伙伴关系的基石是美国的亚洲伙伴们对美国有能力且愿意保护他们的信任。So the easiest way for Beijing to weaken Washington's power in Asia is to undermine this confidence. And the easiest way to do that is for Beijing topress those friends and allies hard on issues in which America's own interests are not immediately engaged -- like a string of maritime disputes in which the U.S. has no direct stake.所以，对北京来说，削弱华盛顿在亚洲力量的最简单的办法是削弱这种信任。而做到这一点最简单的方法是在美国自己的利益无法迅速涉及到的事务上严厉地对那些盟友施压。比如，一系列与美国没有直接利害关系的海事纠纷。[ 转自铁血社区 http://bbs.tiexue.net/ ]
By using direct armed pressure in these disputes, China makes its neighbors more eager for U.S. military support, and at the same time makes America less willing to give it, because of the clear risk of a direct U.S.-China clash. In other words, by confronting America's friends with force, China confronts America with the choice between deserting its friends and fighting China. Beijing is betting that, faced with this choice, America will back off and leave its allies and friends unsupported. This will weaken America's alliances and partnerships, undermine U.S. power in Asia, and enhance China's power.通过在这些争端中使用直接的军事压力，中国使他的邻国对美国的支持更加渴望，同时也因为中美冲突的明显风险而使美国更不愿意提供支持。换句话来讲，通过用武力对抗美国的盟友，中国使美国面对抛弃盟友还是面对中国的选择困境。北京打赌美国在面对这些选择时肯定会抛弃他的盟友而不提供支持。这会削弱美国的同盟和伙伴关系，从而弱化美国在亚洲的力量，加强中国的力量。This view of China's motives explains its recent conduct.Ever since President Obama announced the "pivot," China has tested U.S. willingness to support its allies over the Scarborough Shoals andSenkaku/Daioyu disputes. Until his Asian trip last month, Obama seemed inclined to step back from America's commitments, but his bold words in Tokyo and Manila suggest he has recovered his resolve to stand firm.对中国动机的观点解释了它最近的行动。自从奥巴马总统宣布了"重返亚太战略"，中国就在斯卡伯勒浅滩（黄岩岛）和钓鱼岛测试了美国对支持其盟友的意愿。在奥巴马上月的亚洲行之前，他偏向于放下美国的承诺，但他在东京和马尼拉的讲话表明他恢复了站稳立场的决心。[ 转自铁血社区 http://bbs.tiexue.net/ ]
Now we can expect China to test this newly-recovered resolve by applying more pressure in the same places or elsewhere. And that is what Beijing is doing today in the waters off Vietnam. It is calling Obama's bluff. Expect more pressure against Manila and Tokyo soon.Of course this carries risks for China. It does not want to fight America, so it must be confident in the judgment that America will back down and desertits friends rather than engage in conflict with China, even if backing down badly weakens the U.S. position in Asia. This confidence reflects two key judgments by China's leaders.现在，我们可以期望中国通过在同样的地方或别的地方施加压力来考验这个新恢复的决心。这就是北京最近在越南附近水域所做的事。当然，这对中国有风险。中国不想与美国作斗争，所以，中国必须对自己的判断很有信心：美国必定会让步，抛弃他的盟友而不是与中国作斗争，即使让步会弱化美国在亚洲的地位。这份信心表明了中国领导阶层的两个关键判断。First, they believe that China's new anti-access/area denial capabilities can deny America a quick and easy victory in an maritime clash in the East Asian littoral waters. They have been reassured by America's own Air-Sea Battledoctrine that the U.S. knows it cannot prevail in these waters without launching a major campaign of strikes against Chinese territory. Such strikes would obviously risk a major escalation which might not stop below the nuclear threshold. So China's leaders think their U.S. counterparts understand that a war with China today is one that America could not be confident of either winning or limiting.首先，他们相信中国新的反介入/反封锁能力能使美国无法在东亚海域的海事冲突中取得简单快速的胜利。他们已经因美国自己的空-海战斗原则而消除了疑虑，美国自己知道如果不对中国领土开展打击行为就不能在这些海域取胜。而这种打击行为显然有升级为核战的风险。所以中国的领导阶层认为美国的领导阶层也知道现在与中国开战的话，美国是不可能有信心赢的。[ 转自铁血社区 http://bbs.tiexue.net/ ]
Second, Beijing believes the balance of resolve is on China's side.Washington clearly wants to preserve its role in Asia, but Beijing is even more determined to win power at the U.S.' expense. China's conduct suggests that the leadership in Beijing believes Washington understands this imbalance of resolve. That makes the Chinese confident that U.S. leaders will not assume that China would back down first in a crisis.第二，北京相信中国有更大的决心。华盛顿肯定想保存在亚洲的地位，但北京更有决心夺过美国的权利。中国的行为表明：中国的领导们认为华盛顿理解双方决心的不平衡。这使中国确信美国人不会假设中国在危机中首先退步。The idea that China might believe these things comes as a surprise to many outside China, including, one suspects, many in Washington. U.S. policytowards China, including the pivot itself, is based on contrary assumptions. The consensus is that Beijing is not really serious about challenging U.S. leadershipin Asia because it is simply not willing to risk a confrontation with America which Beijing's leaders must know they would lose, and they do not care enough about expanding China's role in Asia to take that risk.中国可能相信这些事的想法对中国以外的许多人来说可能很令人惊讶。有人怀疑包括很多华盛顿的对华政策，也包括”重返亚太“战略，这些政策都是基于相反的猜测的。大多数人认为北京不是真的想挑战美国在亚洲的领导地位，因为中国肯定不想冒与美国对峙的风险，北京的领导们肯定知道在这种对峙中，中国必败。他们也不想冒这种风险来扩大中国在亚洲的地位。If that's true, then China's conduct is clearly foolish. But before assuming that the Chinese leaders are fools, we would be wise to wonder whether they really do believe what Washington assumes they believe. I'm pretty sure they do not.Asia today therefore carries the seeds of a truly catastrophic episode of mutual misperception. Both Washington and China are steadily upping the stakes in their rivalry as China's provocations of US friends and allies become more flagrant and America's commitments to support them become more categorical.[ 转自铁血社区 http://bbs.tiexue.net/ ]
Both believe they can do this with impunity because both believe the other will back down to avoid a clash. There is a disconcertingly high chance that they are both wrong.Someone needs to change the nature of the game to avert the risk of disaster.如果这是真的，那么中国的行为肯定是傻子行为。但是在假设中国领导人都是傻子之前，考虑一下中国人是否真的相信华盛顿假设他们相信的东西是很明智的。我十分确定他们不相信。现在的亚洲为因相互误解导致的灾难性事件埋下了种子，随着中国对美国盟友的挑衅越来越公开化，美国对其盟友的支持力度也越来越大，中美两国都在增加自己的筹码。他们都相信能够不受伤害地的做这些事，因为他们都相信对方会为了避免冲突而退步。很有可能他们两个都错了。需要有人来改变游戏性质从而避免灾难的风险。 这篇文章的分析值得一看。 评论翻译:
Art's Merrill
This is a direct result of our long standing trade imbalance with China. We have emboldened them with our own money. If we ever want them to take us seriously, we need to hit them where it hurts, in the pocket. First, we should raise our import tariff to the same level as their import tariff on American goods. Second, we should endeavor to buy less Chinese goods and buy more domestic products. It probably would not be a terrible idea to help Japan bring its own military capacity up a notch or two. Just my two cents.
这是我们与中国长期的贸易不平衡的直接结果。我们用我们自己的钱使他们更大胆了。如果我们想严肃对待他们的话，我们需要打他们的痛处--他们的口袋。首先，我们应该把进口税调高到他们对美国商品征收的税那样高，其次，我们应该尽可能少买中国货，买更多的国产货。帮助日本把军事实力提升一两个档次可能也不是一个坏主意。仅仅是我的一点浅薄的意见。
Daniel P.
"So China's leaders think their U.S. counterparts understand that a war with China today is one that America could not be confident of either winning or limiting."
[ 转自铁血社区 http://bbs.tiexue.net/ ]
For the Chinese to even think they have a chance of defeating a nation with six times the defense budget is rather short sighted.
China:
Defense spending 2% of GDP (131.57 Billion)
US:
Defense Spending 4.2% of GDP (683.7 billion) This has actually been reduced from 7% since 2012
China should be more concerned about 60% of their trade coming from the same neighbors they keep squatting on. If America made broader trade agreements with China's rivals we would gain a tremendous amount of power in the region; though it would likely drive China to a war they could not win.
[ 转自铁血社区 http://bbs.tiexue.net/ ]
”所以，中国的领导阶层认为美国的领导阶层也知道现在与中国开战的话，美国是不可能有信心赢的。
中国人居然认为他们有可能打败国防预算是他们6倍的国家，目光真短浅。
中国：
国防预算占GDP的2%(1315.7亿)
美国：
国防预算占GDP4.2%（6837亿）这还是从2012年的7%减下来的。
[ 转自铁血社区 http://bbs.tiexue.net/ ]
中国应该关心一下他们60%的贸易额都来自于他们所欺负的邻国。如果米国跟中国的敌人签订广泛的贸易协定，我们能在这一区域中获取大量的权利，尽管这很有可能把中国逼到打一场不可能赢的战争。
Mater H.
In the end, the key to the Asian balance of power lies with Japan. Unless Japan rearms and once again becomes a presence in Asian affairs, the onus falls upon the US to hold the line against Chinese aggression. The US lacks the political resolve to do that.
最终，亚洲平衡的关键在于日本。除非日本重新武装起来，开始插手亚洲事务。对抗中国的义务在美国手里，但美国缺乏这么做的政治决心。
Charles
China has only one mini-carrier. It's military isn't built for a global trans-Asian war.
[ 转自铁血社区 http://bbs.tiexue.net/ ]
中国只有一艘小型航妈。中国的军事不是为了全球性的泛亚战争而建立的。
Afgan Irakson
their's zero chance of a clash. Just think what would happen if china were to take over Taiwan, as fast as Russia did Crimea... .
根本不可能有冲突的可能。想想如果中国要占领台湾会发生什么，就跟俄罗斯占领克里米亚一样快。。。
Francis .
if USA keeps up interfering tensions btwn Japan-China,Vietnam - China and Philippine - China, China can turn around supporting NK and Iran to complete its nuke ambition. China has many As in its sleeves..... allied with Russia is already done.
[ 转自铁血社区 http://bbs.tiexue.net/ ]
如果美国持续干涉日中、越中、菲中，中国可以转而支持朝鲜和伊朗发展核武。中国的袖子里有很多对策。。。跟俄罗斯的同盟已经完成了。
Scott Summers
I hate to say it, but we're going to have to fight these guys sooner or later. Probably within the next 15 years.
很讨厌这么说，但我们迟早要跟这些家伙们打仗的，很可能在接下来的15年内。 这篇文章的分析值得一看。
满 江 红 发表于 2014-6-5 10:41 http://bbs.51.ca/images/common/back.gif
:thumbu:
THANK YOU 这完全是美囯人片面的政治看法，他们看轻了中国维持领土完整的决心。 好一点的结果是中国比现在多占点地盘(但是不到九段线)，然后给菲，越塞点钱弥补，美国假装没看见。坏的结果就没底了。 本帖最后由 骑马海 于 2014-6-6 00:05 编辑
我认为越菲两国见好就收，趁早妥協。如不识趣，贪得无厌，将来中国更強大，要求九段缐，就后悔无及了！
习近平看着自己的钱包，觉得信心满满，和当年的德国人可以相比了，可以不用韬光养晦了，可以耀武扬威了。他忘了看看自己的一盘散沙的民心，军心，官僚心，。。。。。和当年的德国人有天地之别。所以，真发生冲突，中国人充其量只能扔几颗核弹，毁掉这个世界。他们要是疯了，也没办法。 现代战争的摧毁性要比几十年前大多了，即使小国如越南也有几艘最先进的基洛级潜艇，百架苏-30，苏-27战机，沿海岸密布导弹基地，中国要占的九段线都在这些国家近海防御范围，一旦动武，你要么去轰炸，占领他们的本土，要么蒙受惨重伤亡。侵略别国的本土那就一定会遭到国际谴责和经济制裁的。7国峰会已经发出警告了。如果美日军事介入，后果更不堪设想。
回复 8# 酒中仙 本帖最后由 酒中仙 于 2014-6-6 01:09 编辑
现代战争的摧毁性要比几十年前大多了，即使小国如越南也有几艘最先进的基洛级潜艇，百架苏-30，苏-27战机，沿海岸密布导弹基地，中国要占的九段线都在这些国家近海防御范围，一旦动武，你要么去轰炸，占领他们的本土，要么蒙受惨重伤亡。侵略别国的本土那就一定会遭到国际谴责和经济制裁的。7国峰会已经发出警告了。如果美日军事介入，后果更不堪设想。
回复酒中仙
weinberger 发表于 2014-6-6 00:47 http://bbs.51.ca/images/common/back.gif
我感觉中共唯一可以威胁世界的就是核武，其实甚至小小的朝鲜，伊朗都可以造成这种威胁。几十年以前还有一个杀手锏是人海战术，现在这一条不复存在了，因为即使穷乡僻壤的农民青年也有入城打工这条出路，不需要去当炮灰。经济的发展使中共有了钱的优势，但失掉了“中国人命不值钱”的有利条件。
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