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GTA房屋销量再跌35% 8月房价比4月大降20%

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发表于 2017-9-6 10:48:37 来自触屏版 | 显示全部楼层 |阅读模式

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今年8月份GTA地区房屋销量比一年前跌34.8%,房价连续4个月的下降,与4月高峰相比,房价下跌20.5%。如果对照TREB上一次发布的月报,8月份比7月份房屋交易的下滑幅度有所减缓:在今年7月份,GTA地 ... [ 查看全文 ]

§ 发表于 2017-9-6
4月份买独立屋的已经亏了20%了,现在独立house的风险非常小了。 所以只要有首付能贷款就可以买不要犹豫。

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就是,快入场,雷大师的独立房等着人接盘压惊呢。  发表于 2017-9-6 12:28
发表于 2017-9-6 09:59:16 来自触屏版 | 显示全部楼层
独立屋卖家不愿降价卖是可以理解的,问题是他们要hold住才行。今天的加息对独立屋潜在卖家是个很大的打击,贷款利息又要涨了。银行也不看好独立屋,估值会越来越低。买家能贷到的款少了,供款却在增加,即便想出高价也是没有那么多钱。卖家如果还抱有幻想市场会反弹,那只会错过时机,能卖出的价格越来越低。
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发表于 2017-9-6 09:47:45 | 显示全部楼层
本帖最后由 D.J 于 2017-9-6 09:49 编辑
加国随缘 发表于 2017-9-6 09:42
TREB在分析中认为,卖家不愿卖房只是暂时性的,他们当中不少人在等待机会,也就是秋天房价上升之后再卖房。 ...

按照下跌成交量和房价,4月以来经纪收入减少一半了,肯定希望房子变贵,成交量提高的。今天加息至少九月还是跌,看来加拿大政府就不让多伦多房子反弹,这样做很对。

卖家现在还抱希望,等失望了,就会急这卖了,也有些等破产了卖。
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发表于 2017-9-6 09:33:37 来自触屏版 | 显示全部楼层

GTA房屋销量再跌35% 8月房价比4月大降20%

The Bank of Canada raised its benchmark interest rate by a quarter of a point to one per cent on Wednesday.

It's the second time this year that the central bank has upped the rate, after hiking it for the first time in seven years in July.
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发表于 2017-9-6 09:35:02 | 显示全部楼层
Bank of Canada raises overnight rate to 1 per cent。

今天加息了。
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发表于 2017-9-6 09:42:50 | 显示全部楼层
本帖最后由 加国随缘 于 2017-9-6 10:14 编辑

多伦多四月份独立房平均价格为$1,578,542,八月份独立房平均价格是$1,191,052,降了接近40万。

那谁谁谁,快出来买你的第七个独立房压压惊!
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发表于 2017-9-6 09:50:44 | 显示全部楼层
央行突然加息,
本年估计还有一次,
形势出乎意料呀
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发表于 2017-9-6 09:52:50 | 显示全部楼层
本帖最后由 星洲炒米 于 2017-9-6 09:56 编辑

土豆大举举债在十一年中用1860亿搞基建强烈刺激经济,这样的话,加拿大央行不得不非常快速地加息以防止过度借贷造成的经济过热和巨大泡沫引起严重通胀,而澳大利亚没有所以就没加息。加拿大特别是多伦多(working class city)的房市肯定大降。
http://www.bnn.ca/investors-spli ... -rate-move-1.848430

The stronger-than-expected economy has also encouraged some experts to call on the federal government to revisit the timing of its massive infrastructure-spending plan.
As the centrepiece of its plan to improve the economy's long-term prospects, Ottawa committed to invest about $186 billion into infrastructure across Canada over the next 11 years.

National Bank senior economist Krishen Rangasamy said Ottawa should consider delaying some nearer-term infrastructure investments as the economy strengthens. Otherwise, the extra stimulus could force the Bank of Canada to raise rates more aggressively, he warned in a research note to clients.

"These days, there are fewer folks arguing for infrastructure stimulus," wrote Rangasamy, who admitted he was among those calling for such a move as recently as last year.

"Not only is the Canadian economy booming ... but more importantly, private business investment is now bouncing back."

Holt said he supports longer-term spending to upgrade the country's aging infrastructure, but in the short term doesn't believe the government should be stimulating the economy while the central bank is trying to cool it down.

The most recent GDP data shows the government infrastructure money has already started to lift growth, Bartlett said. Combined with the stronger economy, he warned, there's a risk the infrastructure injection could eventually boost inflation.

Either way, he said, Ottawa would have a difficult time turning off the tap -- particularly on provinces and cities that are counting on the cash.

"A lot of that money's already flowing and a lot of that money's already been approved, so it's pretty tough to scale all of that back now," said Bartlett, who also noted how it was a key pledge for the Liberals.

"It's tough because from a political perspective they've put so much weight on the infrastructure program."


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发表于 2017-9-6 09:56:02 | 显示全部楼层
新豬 发表于 2017-9-6 09:50
央行突然加息,
本年估计还有一次,
形势出乎意料呀

我觉很正常,4.5%的经济增长在发达国家算是超好,加拿大不可能再维持如此低的利息,经济这么好正好整顿加拿大人的高债务问题。
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发表于 2017-9-6 10:03:48 | 显示全部楼层
本帖最后由 songtao 于 2017-9-6 15:09 编辑

与七月份比, GTA很多城市的平均房价都反转上升了. 烈市, KING, 奥克维尔, BURLINGTON, Milton等. Richmondhill八月比七月上升了8%, 大跌眼镜!

还有更奇葩的, Hamilton平均房价已经连续两个月上升, 七月比六月升3.1%, 八月比七月升3.7%. 操他大爷!

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哈哈,你是明骂偷乐  发表于 2017-9-6 12:29
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发表于 2017-9-6 10:04:17 | 显示全部楼层
加国随缘 发表于 2017-9-6 09:42
TREB在分析中认为,卖家不愿卖房只是暂时性的,他们当中不少人在等待机会,也就是秋天房价上升之后再卖房。 ...

爹一半也没猪人的事
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发表于 2017-9-6 10:04:39 来自触屏版 | 显示全部楼层
风水轮流转。炒家自夸眼光好,不劳而获的日子看来要成昨日黄花了。剩下的就只能是尽快脱手止损了。
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发表于 2017-9-6 10:06:44 | 显示全部楼层
作者家的母牛去看兽医,它说“我家主人肺活量了得,把我的器官都干废了”
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发表于 2017-9-6 10:08:18 来自触屏版 | 显示全部楼层
songtao 发表于 2017-9-6 10:03
与七月份比, GTA很多城市的平均房价都反转上升了. 烈市, KING, 奥克维尔, BURLINGTON, Milton等. Richmondh ...

你不也在那几个城市买几套独立屋祝贺一下?
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发表于 2017-9-6 10:08:49 | 显示全部楼层
另外不久一个叫“B-20"的炸弹就要轰炸房市了,它主要是用来保护银行,因为银行现有大量的房贷(接近50%)没上保险, 银行就把钱贷出去了。
B-20 Bombshell:
https://www.canadianmortgagetrends.com/2017/07/b-20-bombshell/

Now, to be fair, OSFI’s job is to protect the solvency of the institutions it regulates. So it’s looking at stats like this and flipping out:

-Uninsured mortgages are growing 14% y/y (Src: BMO)
-About half of Big 6 Bank mortgages are now uninsured (Src: BMO)
-Roughly 80% of new big bank lending in the richly valued Toronto and Vancouver markets is low-ratio mortgage lending (Src: BoC)
-About half of new mortgage originations are clustered near the conventional LTV limit of 80% (Src: BoC)
More than half of low-ratio mortgages now have 30-year amortizations
-By volume, the share of uninsured mortgages with loan-to-income ratios above 450% (the government’s preferred warning threshold) is up from 19% to 27% in two years (Src: BoC)

With 4 in 5 mortgages being conventional, OSFI’s B-20 trequel is a massive change. By year-end, there are 10 outcomes that Canadians should expect if this iteration of B-20 goes through:

-Slashed Buying Power — The majority of homebuyers put down 20% or more. The bulk of those are uninsured mortgage customers. OSFI’s stress test, as proposed, would slash buying power for prime buyers by roughly 18%—assuming they chose a bank mortgage and 25-year amortization. (This last point is a huge question mark. Will OSFI require uninsured borrowers to qualify at a 25-year maximum amortization?? If not, it defeats some of their purpose as a 30-year am. levers you more and gets you ~7%+ more buying power.) For non-prime borrowers, qualifying rates would immediately rocket into the 6% to 7% range—unheard of territory for most young buyers. NBF says dual income Ontario borrowers with 30-year amortizations could suddenly find their gross debt service ratios (on paper) soaring some 700 bps.

-Home Price Haircut — Equity is the #1 safety net keeping bank mortgage books safe. Less buying power means less demand at the same price. OSFI’s much tighter credit policies could conspire with other factors (e.g., rate hikes and debt loads) to kill a portion of demand and jeopardize equity for 70% of the Canadians who own. That soft landing we all hope for could harden up, tout suite. On the other hand (I sound like an economist), home prices have weathered regulation well in the past. Buyers…remarkably…find a way to adapt, such that a crash is sharply less probable than a correction.

-Heightened Borrower Risk — OSFI’s draft proposes the same stress test (200 bps above the contract rate) for all terms. This has to be a mistake, no? Any broker fresh out of broker school could tell you that higher-GDS borrowers will gravitate to shorter terms in order to qualify. That’s the exact opposite of the regulator’s goal today. A typical borrower choosing the lowest variable rate today, for example, might qualify for roughly $16,000 more (and this number is skewed lower due to an abnormally flat yield curve) than someone getting a “safer” 5-year fixed. And they’d qualify for $50,000 bigger mortgage than a 10-year fixed borrower. Do regulators really want higher indebted borrowers in shorter / variable-rate terms?

-Fewer Debt Ratio Exceptions — Banks routinely provide debt ratio exceptions if the borrower’s overall risk profile warrants it. Say goodbye to these on higher LTV deals in markets with high valuations.

-The Non-Prime Shuffle — OSFI’s proposal does not rid the system of lower quality borrowers. It simply:
pushes them down the credit ladder into the welcoming arms of high-cost less-regulated subprime lenders
reinforces “Freedom 75” as Canadians’ new life goal (the coming retirement crisis just got accelerated five years)
heightens overall economic risk.

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发表于 2017-9-6 10:09:14 | 显示全部楼层
这数据有没有跟老张和阿雷核实过?否则他们会来啪啪啪,打脸,搞不好又买几套压压惊(精)。
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