房贷利率小幅上涨 加拿大房市或将冷却

捉鱼小子

狼真的快来了

HeartSutra

部分原因是由于自由党上台的政策。

The Liberal Effect：

The Liberals’ new majority gives them all the power they need to influence Canada’s mortgage market. Interest rates, mortgage policy and affordable housing initiatives will all be affected.
Here’s some of what the mortgage market can expect from Mr. Trudeau’s new government:

• Higher bond yields: Balancing the budget is not a priority for the Liberals until 2019. Trudeau is expected to go on a spending spree and bond traders aren’t keen about it. It suggests a greater supply of government debt and potentially higher long-term yields to come. That, of course, could mean at least slightly higher fixed mortgage rates than we’d otherwise see.
• A More Hawkish Poloz: The odds just dropped for a cut in prime rate. More spending by Ottawa puts less pressure on governor Stephen Poloz to stimulate the economy with rate cuts. The implied probability of a rate hike by next October has almost doubled, from 8% yesterday to 15% as we speak.
• Wider RRSP Access: The Liberals say they’ll open access to the RRSP Home Buyer’s Plan, particularly for homebuyers coping with significant life changes (divorce, death of a spouse, a sick or elderly family member, etc.). More access to down payment funds will prop up housing sales and home ownership slightly, and support home prices.
• More “Affordability”: The Liberal platform includes a review of housing policy in high-priced markets. The new government will “consider all policy tools that could keep home ownership within reach.” What that means, we’ll have to wait and see. It could definitely be positive for renters and income property investors, given the Liberals have promised to “direct CMHC…to provide financing to support the construction” of new rental housing.
• First-timer Support: Trudeau’s government will add more flexible programs for first-time homebuyers. This could mean any number of things, potentially even higher amortization limits for new buyers.
• New Blood at the DoF: The Liberals will be installing a new Minister of Finance, who has enormous power over housing regulation. Will he or she be as hands-off on mortgage policy as the outgoing Joe Oliver? We’re guessing not. We’ll likely have an answer by the time the Liberals release their first budget next spring.
  

http://www.canadianmortgagetrends.com/canadian_mortgage_trends/2015/10/the-liberal-effect.html

山蛟龙

按加拿大目前的情况，升息的可能性还很小，再降息的可能性是存在的。银行提升利率的原因主要是银行太贪了，反正不赚白不赚。至于美国升息提升美元汇率可能带来资本外流而影响房事，这种说法太牵强。加币不是刚开始下跌的，资本要外流不会等到现在。所以，现在继续推高美元，货币弱的国家的资产反而显示出吸引力。

JUSTIN T

山蛟龙 发表于 2015-11-25 10:17
按加拿大目前的情况，升息的可能性还很小，再降息的可能性是存在的。银行提升利率的原因主要是银行太贪了， ...

有一定道理，比本文强。

JUSTIN T

我脚得第三次世界大战可能会最终影响本国房事

羅丹

只有保守党能死撑着那个泡沫不破。虽然没投自由党的票，看来现在还的感谢自由党，不破不立，畸形的泡沫不破，加拿大永远不会有更大的经济发展。

加拿大老张

自由党上台, 加拿大经济的两大支拄: 资源业和房地产业都走下坡路.  制造业就更掺了. 看来小特鲁多只能靠毒品合法化, 政府贩毒支持GDP了.

皓子

Group7 发表于 2015-11-26 00:42
只有保守党能死撑着那个泡沫不破。虽然没投自由党的票，看来现在还的感谢自由党，不破不立，畸形的泡沫不破 ...

自由党粉，用点脑好吗？ 还不破不立，呵呵，

加拿大老张

70%的加拿大人是有房户, 这次要体验什么是净资产下跌了, 以万元为单位.

WXWSKKXX

本国经济已经到了很严峻的地步，除了国际环境，很大原因是愚蠢，种族主义的保守党的原因。可怜的某些逢自由二字必反的家伙，老朽昏庸，没有生存的特长，资质愚鲁，整天梦想炒房一夜暴富，以危害我们新一代的生活质量为目标，你们会死的很难看

JUSTIN T

加拿大老张 发表于 2015-11-25 11:52
70%的加拿大人是有房户, 这次要体验什么是净资产下跌了, 以万元为单位.

新文章又出来了，独立屋稀缺，需求强劲:

很难注册

加拿大老张 发表于 2015-11-25 11:49
自由党上台, 加拿大经济的两大支拄: 资源业和房地产业都走下坡路.  制造业就更掺了. 看来小特鲁多只能靠毒 ...

愈加之罪, 刚刚上台,资源业的下滑跟他有毛的关系? 至于房地产,也该降温啦.

Jeffl

房价该降降温了。不然我们的孩子以后在加拿大连房子也租不起了，买房就更别提了。

JUSTIN T

Jeffl 发表于 2015-11-25 14:45
房价该降降温了。不然我们的孩子以后在加拿大连房子也租不起了，买房就更别提了。 ...

房子本来就是奢侈品，不是所有人应该拥有的。

一只老猫

像多伦多这样大城市的需求始终在那里，也是新移民们（非富豪）的首选城市。只要有人来，房价哪里可能大跌？最多放缓或者不增长而已