多伦多房价很可能再狂跌10%! Toronto Star最新报道!!

lakecitydream

多伦多房价很可能再狂跌10%! Toronto Star最新报道!!
原文在此:

http://toreal.blogs.com/toronto/2008/10/real-estate-cou.html

Real estate could fall another 10%

Canadian housing prices could fall by up to another to 10per cent before they hit bottom as the market faces a correction, saysScotia Capital Economist Derek Holt. "We will go through a correction,and the balance of risks are to the downside rather than the upside," Holt  says.


"Housing is past the peak as a driver of growth. However, the bulkof the price depreciation will be in the western provinces that haveseen higher upside in prices", according to Holt. "The overall marketremains healthy, but we are in a controlled cooling with the risk toprice of maybe 5 and up to 10 per cent."


Canadian house prices already saw a year-over-year drop of 5.1 percent in August, the most since 1996. Sales are also down by 19 percent. Toronto-area prices meanwhile saw a 3 per cent drop in September,the first in more than a decade.


Canadian Real Estate Association chief economist Gregory Klump said he is forecasting the market to "continue to cool."


Consumer sentiment has softened over job growth due to the economicuncertainty, he said. With 75 per cent of Ontario exports tied to theUnited States, a moribund consumer market south of the border couldmean more job losses in Canada.


Holt and Klump were part of a panel discussion organized by the realestate association in which panellists stressed that the Canadianmarket was in much better shape than its U.S. counterpart, where somehouse values have dropped in half. "We had a lot less leverage in ourhomes and when prices went up we weren't as good on the upside, butconsequently it didn't magnify our problems on the downside," said Holt.
In Toronto, some neighbourhoods that saw quick appreciation are nowcorrecting faster, said Ann Bosley, former president of the association.


A controversial land transfer tax in the city implemented this yearmay also have had an impact on sales, although "it's too soon to tell,"said Bosley.


Any further price depreciation in the Toronto area will likely beless steep than in some other Canadian cities since appreciation hasbeen steady, but not spectacular over the past few years, said Bosley.


Jim Murphy, chief executive of the Canadian Association ofAccredited Mortgage Professionals, said Canadians are in better shapewhen it comes to debt. "Canadians have been more conservative and themarket remains strong – you should be able to get a mortgage here ifyou need one."


The association released a report yesterday to counter an earlierMerrill Lynch study that said Canadians were overextended and in dangerof falling into a downward debt spiral as in the U.S.


"Most Canadian homeowners have housing costs that are well withintheir comfort zones," said the report. Based on 2006 statistics, thereport indicates that 90 per cent of Canadian homeowners have debtratios below the maximum recommended 32 per cent threshold.


"In many ways we've been the poster child for a healthy market, witha sounder banking system and a more conservative approach," said Holt."But given what's happening out there, there are risks going forward."
Source: Tony Wong reporting in the Toronto Star



加拿大住房价格可能会下降到另一个百分之十才触底，市场将面临修正，说Scotia Capital的经济学家德里克霍尔特。 “我们将经过校正和平衡的风险是下降而不是上升， ”霍尔特说。

“房屋是过去高峰作为一名车手的增长。然而，大量的折旧价格将在西部省份已经看到更高的价格上涨” ，根据霍尔特。 “整个市场仍然是健康的，但我们正处在一个控制冷却与风险价格也许5到百分之十。 ”

加拿大房价已经看到了比去年同期下降了百分之五点一的8月，自1996年以来最。销售额也下降了百分之十九。多伦多地区的价格同时看到了百分之三下降， 9月，第一次是在超过10年。

加拿大房地产协会首席经济学家格雷戈里Klump说，他预测市场“继续降温。 ”

消费者信心指数已经软化了就业增长由于经济前景不明朗，他说。百分之七十五并列安大略省出口到美国，一个垂死的消费市场南部的边界可能意味着更多的就业损失在加拿大。

霍尔特和Klump的一部分，小组讨论会举办的房地产协会，其中小组成员强调指出，加拿大是在市场的表现胜过了美国，一些房屋的价值已经下降了一半。 “我们有很多不足杠杆在我们的家园，当价格上升，我们不如上档，但因此它没有放大我们的问题有下降趋势， ”霍尔特说。

在多伦多，一些街区看到快速升值正在纠正更快，安波斯利说，前总统协会。

一项有争议的土地转让税在城市实施，今年可能也影响了销售，但“这还为时过早，说： ”波斯利。

任何进一步的价格贬值，多伦多地区可能会急剧减少比其他一些加拿大城市赞赏以来一直稳定，但不壮观在过去几年中说，波斯利。

吉姆墨菲，首席执行官加拿大协会认可的抵押贷款专家说，加拿大人更好地形成时候的债务。 “加拿大人一直较为保守，市场依然强劲-你应该能够获得抵押贷款在这里如果你需要一个。 ”

该协会发表的一份报告昨天早些时候反美林证券研究报告称，加拿大人和过度的危险，陷入螺旋式下降的债务在美国

“大部分加拿大住房业主的费用都在其舒适区， ”报告说。根据2006年统计，报告指出，百分之九十的加拿大房主已负债比率低于最高推荐百分之三十二的门槛。

“在许多方面，我们已经张贴孩子一个健康的市场，健全的银行体系和更保守的态度，说： ”霍尔特。 “但是，鉴于发生的事情在那里，有风险的向前发展。 ”

nodoubt05

顶,支持

青松翠柏

一派胡言. 谁也说不准!!! 谁看得准, 他就成了亿万富翁了.

这个社会谁都可以发表自己的关点. 不可轻信.

C罗0898

顶，

拿不定主意买不买房，也可以先租房

cj127

现在房贷利率很低,房屋的价格要狂跌的可能性不大.