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标题: 多伦多楼市寒冬降临一切都是刚刚开始 [打印本页]

作者: KGB1 时间: 2017-10-2 09:23
标题: 多伦多楼市寒冬降临一切都是刚刚开始
我感觉相反

作者: 无忌哥哥 时间: 2017-10-2 09:32
跌吧跌吧。回头再买个放租

作者: zhouhuihui 时间: 2017-10-2 09:50
多伦多房子均价100多万，远远超出了可以负担的范畴，又不像纽约一类的大城市可以完全靠有钱人和外国人撑着，降价是早晚的事。

作者: 星洲炒米 时间: 2017-10-2 09:56
本帖最后由星洲炒米于 2017-10-2 22:09 编辑

美联储现在最有可能当选下任主席的人选是Kevin Warsh，他的老婆是Estee Lauder老板的女儿，Estee Lauder老板Ronald Lauder是川普的最铁的哥们, 他们是宾夕法尼亚大学的同窗。Kevin Warsh可是一个超级鹰派的,一旦上台会快速疯狂加息的，当年因为坚决抵制QE辞职。人很年轻，如果他上台只能加利息更快，缩表更快。

https://www.forbes.com/sites/ste ... umber/#7524e9b016b8
Kevin Warsh: Are We Sliding Into Another Financial Crisis?

Kevin Warsh, Fed governor from 2006 to 2011 and now a distinguished visiting fellow at the Hoover Institution, appeared on CNBC this morning and shared some important thoughts on Federal Reserve policy and its impact on markets.

“The markets,” he said, “have been absolutely spoiled by the Federal Reserve and its accommodative monetary policy since the depths of the 2008 financial crisis.”

"Now, I would say the markets are exhausted because the Fed keeps deciding that there's a new set of benchmarks. Before it was forward guidance. Now it's, 'Just kidding about forward guidance!' The Fed said, “Once we get to 6.5% unemployment, we are going to get going and raise rates.” But it's now 5.5 percent or even 5 percent. Markets are exhausted by all this.”

“The ‘taper tantrum’ back in the days of quantitative easing bond purchases and now the ‘dollar tantrum’ ahead of possible rate hikes forced central bank policymakers to reconsider their timing.”

“The financial markets think they have Fed Chair Janet Yellen's number. This is a very dangerous development, when markets think they can control things.”

Inflation is not a real issue

Warsh was asked whether low inflation was a good reason for not raising rates.

“The inflation excuse for not rushing into rate hikes isn’t sound. The reality is inflation is not a problem. Core inflation, which excludes the volatile food and energy components, is running at about 1.5 percent—only slight lower than the Fed's 2 percent target. What's the difference to the real economy?"

"I don't like policies that are being changed based on what's happening on our ticker machine. Contrary to the tradition for some thirty years, the Fed has started talking about the dollar. The Federal Reserve should be focused on what's happening three or four years out, not recent data being skewed by harsh winter weather or the dollar.”

“Quantitative easing was designed as an emergency policy in a state of emergency. We shouldn’t use emergency policies when things are ok.”

The mis-allocation of resources is real

“The Fed talks about the great successes of Quantitative Easing. But the average wage earner without a big balance sheet hasn’t seen the benefits. Instead we have mis-allocation of capital. What it means is that we haven’t seen investment in plants and equipment. What it means that corporate profits appear to have peaked and are going down. What it means is that we are stuck in what the Fed seems to believe is secular stagnation. We have fallen into the secular stagnation trap suggesting that the economy can’t do more than this."

“We have pursued policies which are stagnating. The underlying economic results are poor. Too many in ‘the secular stagnation crowd’ say that it was inevitable. People can’t see what would have happened if policies had been different.”

“But what’s not invisible is the front page of the Financial Times today: ‘Another great quarter for Mergers and Acquisitions. (M&A)’ M&A volumes are up 21%. It’s a terrific year. Investments are going into share buybacks and financial engineering to try to find some top-line investment. Companies stay in business far longer than they ever should have been, because they can roll over debt and not fail when they should have.”

Going into a crisis with great complacency

“We now have negative real interest rates," said Warsh. "We have done this twice before in our history. From 1974 to 1976, we had a persistent level of negative real rates driving mis-allocations of capital. That experiment didn’t turn out too well. From 2002 to 2004, we had negative real interest rates for a persistent period. That didn’t turn out too well. Will it turn out well this time? None of us know. This is an experiment that we should be doing with great care and great modesty without obvious conviction that there are no financial stability risks.”

CNBC asked whether Warsh was surprised that negative real interest rates have lasted this long.

“I am not surprised,” said Warsh, “that markets continue to want to drink the Kool-Aid. I’m not surprised that investors think the good times can happen forever. We have done this before and gone into a crisis with great complacency and we are seeing it again.”

The alarming explosion of “covenant-lights”

Warsh was asked about "covenant-lights."

If you had never heard of credit default swaps before 2008, you have probably never heard of “covenant lights.” The term “covenant-lights” is financial jargon for risky loan agreements that do not contain the usual protective covenants for the benefit of the lender. In such loans, the lender cannot intervene if the financial position of the borrower or the value of underlying assets deteriorates. Around 2006, there was a "race to the bottom", with syndicates of banks competing with each other to offer ever less invasive terms to borrowers in relation to leveraged buy-outs. Such loans are very profitable for banks and their traders in a low interest rate environment. But they are riskier because they lack the early warning signs that lenders would otherwise receive through traditional covenants. Where risks are further dispersed through derivatives, the scale and location of the risks are opaque, with significant implications if things turn bad: nobody knows who owes what to whom. This can lead to the whole financial system freezing, precipitating a major crisis. Covenant-lights were a significant factor in the 2008 financial meltdown.

Now, apparently, covenant-lights are back.

“Covenant-lights” said Warsh, “are two and half times the level they were back in 2007. Investors’ willingness to take on these loans has never been higher. Chair Yellen said on Friday that the gradualist approach is not without risks. This is the central bank understatement that we have come to expect. We would feel better about these risks if our understanding of these risks and macro-prudential policing had improved dramatically since 2007. The new ways of policy monitoring are important but they are still nascent in their creation.”

Bottom-line

Warsh argues that the Fed has paid most of its attention to the risks of raising rates. It should now pay more attention to the risks of keeping rates low too long. Chair Yellen can easily show the markets that they don't have her number--simply by starting to raise rates, and not backing off, when spoiled-brat traders throw a temper tantrum.

Kevin Warsh, Don Kohn on quantitative easing and inequality:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AggsvII90eQ

作者: y_stone99 时间: 2017-10-2 10:02
确实寒冬离我们不远了. 房事还要降温.......

作者: 五湖居士 时间: 2017-10-2 10:03
9月无拐点，短期内不会再有，妥妥的一个房产熊市开始，少则三年，多则五年，相对今年三月，房价腰斩指日可待。

作者: 笑看地产JJ忽悠 时间: 2017-10-2 11:01

无忌哥哥发表于 2017-10-2 09:32
跌吧跌吧。回头再买个放租

前有雷大师买房压惊，今有你买房放租，你干脆改为雷二师吧，哈哈哈哈

作者: angela1 时间: 2017-10-2 11:02
加拿大央行未来一年可能还要加息1%

作者: D.J 时间: 2017-10-2 11:25
本帖最后由 D.J 于 2017-10-2 11:27 编辑

明明是春天怎么叫寒冬？房子便宜了是大好事情。每个月到这个时候经纪就不忽悠房子又贵了，因为真实数据马上出来。等月中了又开始忽悠，房子很热反弹了，然后到月初又没声音了。

作者: 隔壁老王叔 时间: 2017-10-2 11:40
咦，这几天咋不见老张了？老张您不会去开大卡车了吧，还是换了网名。

作者: 羅丹 时间: 2017-10-2 12:27
真忽悠不动了。一会触底了一会反弹了一会又开始抢offer了。全世界最贵的国家了还能贵到那去。

作者: 蓝色晶体 时间: 2017-10-2 12:40
现在发展商放出的新屋价格还是太高，我家旁边新放盘的单车库连部分完成地下室2000呎的Townhouse居然还要110万。

作者: JCHK 时间: 2017-10-2 12:49
能让鸡鸡们都事业才是合适的房地产市场

作者: 宇宙洪荒 时间: 2017-10-2 12:50
文贵说，一切都是刚刚开始！

作者: .黑. 时间: 2017-10-2 13:44

Tomm007 发表于 2017-10-2 12:50
文贵说，一切都是刚刚开始！

一个值得纪念的日子，文贵说。

作者: 笑看地产JJ忽悠 时间: 2017-10-2 15:04

蓝色晶体发表于 2017-10-2 12:40
现在发展商放出的新屋价格还是太高，我家旁边新放盘的单车库连部分完成地下室2000呎的Townhouse居然还要110 ...

一点儿也不高，78780只地产鸡鸡，几十套townhouse,完全不够它们抢的。

作者: 笑看地产JJ忽悠 时间: 2017-10-2 15:08

北美国人发表于 2017-10-2 11:40
咦，这几天咋不见老张了？老张您不会去开大卡车了吧，还是换了网名。

现在房市不好，老张为了50刀稿费，不得不暴露了自己的职业。唉，真是鸟为食亡，那至少三天的菜钱。哈哈哈哈哈哈哈

作者: 宝马7 时间: 2017-10-2 19:23
“一切都是刚刚开始” 已经是墙里面的敏感词了

作者: 巴林顿将军 时间: 2017-10-2 20:02
＂除非自由党下台，保守党上台。自由党在台上大量移民难民进入加拿大，加上最低工资15元，到多伦多找工作机会多，明年房价不会跌。＂
15元的最低工资会推高物价，减少工作机会，招致进一步涨息

作者: velez 时间: 2017-10-2 20:05

蓝色晶体发表于 2017-10-2 12:40
现在发展商放出的新屋价格还是太高，我家旁边新放盘的单车库连部分完成地下室2000呎的Townhouse居然还要110 ...

现房有75万左右的，地点还好呢。不知道为什么要抢那110万的。

作者: 日你老祖先 时间: 2017-10-2 20:21
终于一边倒唱空城计了，看嘛。就象川普上台一样，总有想不到的大结局。

作者: 笑看地产JJ忽悠 时间: 2017-10-2 21:31
房价都已然跌成这样了，51华人地产鸡鸡精英实在无法再忽悠了。如果还继续忽悠，那人品得有多差呀?脸皮得有多厚啊？

作者: abcdef1023456 时间: 2017-10-2 21:33
这两年，不管什么时候买，都会被套，土豪随意。

作者: Hutuohe 时间: 2017-10-3 07:21

kefei 发表于 2017-10-2 11:51
北京的平均房价880万元，但平均面积肯定是远不如加拿大的。。。。也就是多伦多condo的大小。。。 ...

你改名叫”欣欣像蓉“比较适合你。

作者: 宇宙洪荒 时间: 2017-10-3 08:21
谁有数据，房价到底跌落多少了？
只看到销量下跌很多。

作者: Condo仔 时间: 2017-10-3 11:11
缩表与加息双管齐下，离炒房客跳楼的日子不远了！

作者: ariel.c 时间: 2017-10-3 13:50
房价涨跌都只需要一个原因：信心。

作者: Super猪 时间: 2017-10-3 14:41

griffiel 发表于 2017-10-3 13:50
房价涨跌都只需要一个原因：信心。

白吃的特点是买涨杀爹.

作者: Super猪 时间: 2017-10-3 14:41

.黑. 发表于 2017-10-2 13:44
一个值得纪念的日子，文贵说。

俺说:文贵你也是一只鸡.

作者: Condo仔 时间: 2017-10-3 21:46
满大街都是插牌买房，让炒房客和地产JJ心寒，之前不是忽悠多伦多住房紧张，新移民多吗？！

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